S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
The escalation in trade tensions has put Latin America FX (and EM markets more broadly) under some pressure. This warrants some reduction in risk, and we, therefore, trim the size of our OWs in BRL, COP, and CLP in the JP Morgan's GBI-EM Model Portfolio while maintaining the MXN hedge. We hold onto a long ARS NDF as well as a USDc/MXNp 3m option with RKO=20.20.
It is advisable to maintain an over-weighted portfolio in Latin American FX-segment, as it is reckoned that given current levels and cheaper valuations, currencies may see some support despite heightened trade tensions. Reform optimism should support BRL ahead, with the base text of the SSR approved in the second round last night in the Lower House by 370 votes. COP is also trading cheap in our valuation models, while CLP could gain from local investors increasing longs and extended long USD positions from foreign investors. Meanwhile, our MXN hedge has partially offset the move weaker in this recent sell-off and we stay UW the peso.
We revise BRL, CLP, COP and PEN forecast weaker. The threat of additional tariffs this year and a weaker CNY should put additional pressures on Latam currencies.
Trade tips: We revise BRL to 4.0/USD for end-2019 (from 3.9), CLP to 730/USD (from 720), COP to 3,400/USD (from 3,300) and PEN to 3.38/USD from (3.37). CLP should still remain mildly supported by local pension funds further FX hedging their international investments (by going long CLP NDFs), and COP from BanRep’s relatively hawkish stance in the region. Courtesy: JPM
