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In EMEA EM, stay underweight FX via short ZAR, RUB and HUF versus TRY and CZK. In this segment, maintain UW FX against a backdrop of weak commodity prices, rising core yields, and increasing volatility, but remain selectively long TRY, CZK and ILS on idiosyncratic stories. Since the hawkish shift in DM central bank rhetoric last week, EM FX has depreciated against the dollar.
USDCZK: We see a trend of mild appreciation in CZK, moderated by some profit-taking of crowded long CZK positions that were built up prior to the peg being removed
USDHUF: MNB may use FX swap auctions to influence HUF weaker. Dovish bias will persist. However, favorable EM backdrop and current account surplus may limit pace of EUR-HUF gains
USDILS: ILS is likely to gradually strengthen, with strong macro fundamentals outweighing the central bank's intervention to limit currency strength
USDPLN: Polish zloty has shown relative resilience despite the recent EM wobble. Continued inflows into POLGBs, robust economic data, and strong budget execution may further benefit PLN.
USDRON: Worries regarding high risk of fiscal slippage and rising inflation persist. Additionally, turbulent domestic politics further muddy the investment thesis. However, valuations are compelling.
USDRUB: Rubel may partially participate in the EM rally as market sentiment recovers, but gains may be limited by continuing prospect of US sanctions risk, geopolitical developments, and oil price volatility.
USDZAR: Worries around interference on institutions, announcements of populist measures may cause sporadic spells of weakness. However, the benign external environment will remain supportive.
USDTRY: Volatility has increased alongside deterioration in EM sentiment and linkages to Qatar. Other factors are positive such as tight monetary stance and returning bond inflows.
Derivatives Trade highlights:
Buy 2M 25D EUR call switches in EURUSD vs EURPLN and sell EURNOK – EURSEK correlations via a vanilla option triangle.
USDRUB appearing call spread, stay long 08-Dec-17 USDRUB call (59), spot ref: 57.00.
Add longs in ILS vs a 50:50 EUR:USD basket with a target of 3.50, and review point of 3.85. Marked at +1.64%.
Rates: Pay CZK 10y IRS.
