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The Indian rupee has bounced back strongly in the past two months. It went from the worst performing Asian currency at the end of January, down nearly 2% vs the USD to +1% at the end of March. This is just above the average gain for Asian currencies of +0.8%. The reasons for the turnaround include:
1) a strong rebound in net portfolio inflows – the SENSEX has rebounded strongly by over 10% since the lull in February. Year-to-date, net foreign equity inflows shot up to USD7bn from near zero in mid-February; and
2) a turnaround in net foreign portfolio inflows into the debt market to USD560mn year-to-date. Last week, RBI raised the limit for foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in central government securities to 6% of outstanding stock for the fiscal year 2019-2020 from 5.5% previously.
This is the 2nd part of the two-phase increase announced last year. For the RBI meeting tomorrow, the market is expecting them to cut again by 25bp to 6%. The focus will be on the policy bias and whether they’ll be open to further cuts this year. Given stabilization in INR, moderating growth, and signs of easing in core inflation, the risks are for a dovish statement. However, continued portfolio inflows should continue to cushion INR.
Technically, USDINR retraces more than 50% Fibonacci levels from the highs of 74.528 levels. The pair forms the bearish engulfing pattern that plummets prices below 7EMAs as momentum oscillators still signal intensified bearish momentum. For now, strong support is seen at 68.5044 which is 21-EMAs, any breach below should see more slumps.
Trade tips (USDINR): On hedging grounds, upon huge FX turbulence of this pair in the weeks to come ahead of union polls of India, we advocate initiating longs in USDINR futures contracts of mid-month tenors with a view to arresting upside risks. Courtesy: Commerzbank
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards -45 levels (bearish), while articulating at 13:57 GMT.
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
