FxWirePro: Gold outlook – standing at crucial cross road

Gold is standing at important cross road. Key focus will be whether gold further builds over its recent surge from here or succumb to longer term downtrend pressure.

• In the short term, fundamentals are in favor of gold, especially since US payroll report surprised to the downside on last Friday. Rate hike expectation has seen serious setback. Most of the participants as measured by overnight index swap, now sees FED not to hike in 2015 at all and at least not before March 2016. While many expect it to occur well into 2016.
   
• Another set of arguments have surfaced, that FED usually doesn't hike in the election year, which is 2016. That makes possibility of first hike to be in 2017.

Given such fundamental push Gold has surged from $1105 to $1150 as of today.

However technically speaking, Gold is standing at crucial cross roads.

• As shown in the figure, Gold is in clear downtrend channel, since April 2013 and price has fallen from $1490/troy ounce to $1070 as of July. From July however Gold has found support in Channel base and rising since along rising trend line, which was tested once in September and once in October.

• Price is now at key cross road testing falling downtrend line which is resisting gold around $1150 area. Breaking which might lead gold towards $1225 area.