Oil Prices Rise as Trump Threatens Tougher Iran Economic Measures 
Schott Pharma Stock Rises as Barclays Upgrades Rating on Growth Outlook 
Asian Stocks Rise as Korea Tech Shares Rebound 
Moody’s Affirms NVIDIA Aa1 Rating as AI Data Center Guarantees Reach $105 Billion 
Barclays Downgrades Renault as Cost Savings Challenges Grow 
Gold Holds Above $4,500 as Dollar Weakens 
Gold Tops $4,500 as Dollar Slides After Treasury Bond Move 
29 US states are suing Meta. What might it mean for the rest of the world? 
US Debt Tops $40 Trillion as Global Borrowing Costs Surge 
Trump Eyes 15% Tariff on Canadian Auto Imports in New Trade Deal 
Wall Street Ends Higher as Crypto Stocks and Materials Rally 
Want to muck around with a real quantum computer? Now you can 
US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Bond Buybacks as Yields Surge 
Gold Holds Near Two-Month High as Treasury Yields Fall 
Asian Currencies Rise as Dollar Weakens, Treasury Yields Climb 
Add as a preferred source on Google
Goldman Sachs has raised its USD/JPY exchange rate forecasts, predicting the Japanese yen will remain under pressure as elevated U.S. Treasury yields, limited recession risks in the United States, Japan’s fiscal concerns, and gradual Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes continue to support the U.S. dollar.
The investment bank now expects USD/JPY to reach 162 in three months, 163 in six months, and 165 within 12 months, revising its previous forecasts of 160, 158, and 155, respectively.
The updated outlook comes after the yen weakened to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in four decades, prompting Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) to closely monitor currency movements. Goldman noted that Japanese authorities appear prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market again through yen-buying operations if volatility accelerates.
According to the bank, recent reports suggest the MoF may skip its traditional final verbal warnings before intervening, a strategy aimed at discouraging speculative bets against the yen.
However, Goldman believes any intervention would likely provide only temporary relief. The bank pointed to previous currency operations, including the intervention in April 2024, after which USD/JPY resumed its upward trend within weeks. Goldman expects a similar outcome if Japan intervenes again without a meaningful shift in broader economic conditions.
The bank said sustained yen appreciation would likely require either an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy or a significantly more aggressive tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan. At present, Goldman considers both scenarios unlikely over the next year.
Goldman also highlighted growing concerns over Japan’s fiscal stimulus plans and persistent inflation, which could lift the term premium on Japanese government bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries. Historically, the bank noted, wider term premium differentials have supported further gains in USD/JPY.
Given its outlook, Goldman continues to favor the Japanese yen as a funding currency for high-carry emerging market investments alongside other low-yielding G10 currencies, expecting the broader trend of yen weakness to remain intact despite the possibility of occasional government intervention.
