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US Treasury yields rose 3-7bp over the week as the FOMC’s SEP was perceived as hawkish given the dots continued to project three hikes in 2018.
Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen gave one of her most open addresses to-date. Speaking to a crowd of economists from around the world, Yellen spoke honestly about the challenges of conducting monetary policy in the current cycle. Specifically, she went into great depth in explaining the uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of inflation and the Fed's ability to model/forecast inflation.
Yellen reiterated the language she used in her press conference following the FOMC's September 20th statement, citing strength in the labor markets and the Fed's belief that recent inflation weakness has been driven by temporary factors that will fade over time.
US 10yr yields rose from 2.21% to 2.25% ahead of Yellen’s speech, 2yr yields from 1.42% to 1.45. Fed fund futures yields firmed, to price the chance of a December rate hike at 76% (from 71%). Yellen’s speech was mixed, and yields fell 2bp afterwards.
The US dollar index rose 0.4% to a one-month high. EUR fell from 1.1850 to 1.1758 – a one-month low. USDJPY rose from 111.50 to 112.48. AUD fell from 0.7940 to 0.7859 – a six-week low. NZD similarly fell from 0.7250 to 0.7168 – a three-week low. AUDNZD ranged sideways between 1.0940 and 1.0980, after rising yesterday following some weak NZ economic data.
Russia: Based on current levels, the front-end of the curve is fairly valued according to macro fundamentals (current 2y yield 7.65% vs last estimated value of 7.72%), while 10y yields are around 20bp below the predicted value. Strong global demand for yield, high real rates, and a stable currency can justify the modest richness at the long-end.
Turkey: Current yield levels are well below (80bp and 50bp in the 2y and 10y respectively) the predicted value. This is likely related to expectations that tight CBRT liquidity will eventually be reduced, and also due to the global demand for yield.
South Africa: Similar to Russia, the front-end of the curve is fairly valued; 10y yields are around 15bp above the predicted value, but well within normal deviations.
