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The US dollar index pared most of its gains on weak US economic data real GDP came at 4.9% for the third quarter, below the estimate of 5.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 2000 last week vs an estimate of 214K. US Philadelphia manufacturing index declined to -10.5 in Dec vs. 3 expected.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Jan increased to 14.5% from 12.40% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback ahead of the US PCE. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -45.50% from -53.6%.
Major resistance- 102.65/103.20
Major support- 101.70/101.
EURUSD-
EURUSD declined slightly ahead of US PCE data. Any surge in PCE data could have a positive impact on the US dollar.
Major resistance-1.1020,1.1070
Major support- 1.0960,1.0880
Yen-
The yen showed a minor decline after weak Japanese inflation data. Japan's CPI came at 2.5% in Nov y/y below the estimate of 2.9%.
Major Resistance- 143,144
Major support- 141.80,140.70
Pound sterling
The pound sterling consolidating in an arrow range ahead of UK retail sales. Markets anticipate a rate cut by the BOE in the first quarter after weak UK CPI data.
Major Resistance- 1.2700,1.2765
Major support- 1.2600,1.2540
Economic calendar -
Dec 21st, 2023, US Durable goods orders (1:30 pm GMT)
US Core PCE index (1:30 pm GMT)
