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FxWirePro: EUR/JPY gravestone doji hampers interim uptrend, major downtrend disregards hammer – Trade tunnel spread, uphold short hedge

Technical chart and candlestick patterns formed: On EURJPY daily plotting, gravestone doji has occurred at 122.020 levels that nudge below 21-DMAs again.

Thereby, the downswings may develop the double top pattern with top 1 at 123.175 and top 2 at 123.357 levels. While both leading and lagging indicators substantiate the weakness.

Although we see mild price recoveries, the weakness is quite visible upon a flurry of bearish indications, the trend for the day appears to be absolutely edgy with renewed weakness.

For now, the current major downtrend is most likely to prolong bearish swings that are backed by both momentum oscillators as both leading indicators (RSI & stochastic curves) show downward convergence that signal bearish strength and the intensified selling momentum and weakness remains intact on the monthly terms.

While hammer pattern candle pops-up at 124.601 levels, whereas bears hamper upswings below 7EMAs, consequently, prices have plummeted as the bears have staged for multi-months’ lows, accordingly, bearish trade setup is advocated as the major downtrend shrugs-off hammer (refer monthly chart).

Trade tips: On trading perspective, at spot reference: 121.649 levels, it is advisable to trade tunnel option spreads, using upper strikes at 121.883 and lower strikes at 121.424 levels, the strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as the underlying spot FX remains above lower strikes on the expiration.

Alternatively, ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting, we advocated shorts in futures contracts of mid-month tenors with a view to arresting potential dips. We now wish to roll over these contracts for August month deliveries.

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Bln AR bln ARS

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ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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