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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2015
Kijun-Sen- $2010.55
Gold showed a nice pullback after a massive sell-off. It hit a high of $1973.15 and is currently trading at around $2023.60.
US retail sales rose by 0.30% in Nov compared to a forecast of -0.10%. Core retail sales excluding autos jumped 0.20% vs. an Estimated 0.10%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped by 19000 last week to 202000, compared to a forecast of 219K.
US Empire State manufacturing index declined sharply and came below market expectations.
Fed kept its rates unchanged as expected and trimmed the GDP growth and inflation forecast. The Fed dot plot shows three 3 rate cuts in 2024 (0.75%). ECB and BOE followed the fed policy with a cautious approach.
Major economic data for the week
Dec20th 2023,
US CB consumer confidence (3 pm GMT)
Dec 21st 2023, US Final GDP q/q (1:30 pm GMT)
Dec 22nd, 2023, Core PCE index (1:30 pm GMT)
Core durable goods order
US new home sales (3 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 101.75/101. The near-term resistance is 103.25/104.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Jan increased to 10.3% from 4% a week ago.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2020, a break below targets of $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1986 for TP of $2150.
Silver-
Silver Is consolidating after a sharp recovery. The near-term resistance is around $24.20 (50% fib retracement). Any close above $24.20, a jump to $25/$26. Minor support is $23.60/$23.
Crude oil-
WTI crude jumped more than 1% on supply disruption as the Red Sea attack increased. The attack by Houthis on ships in the Red Sea increased supply concerns.
Major resistance- $75/80. Significant support- $66.50/$63.
