Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Slower Cuts Amid Market, Geopolitical Tensions

The S&P 500 ended slightly lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% and signaled a slower pace of rate cuts ahead. The Dow fell 44 points (-0.1%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.04%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

The Fed maintained its projection of two rate cuts in 2025 but revised its outlook for 2026 and 2027. Rates are now expected to fall to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, up from prior estimates. This hawkish shift reflects ongoing concerns over persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, further complicated by tariffs and policy ambiguity under President Donald Trump.

Economic data showed mixed signals. U.S. housing starts edged up 0.4% in May, but building permits declined, reflecting weakness in the housing market. Jobless claims fell to 245,000 last week, but signs point to a softening labor market.

Geopolitical tensions rose after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s call for surrender, warning of “irreparable damage” if the U.S. intervenes militarily. Trump hinted at possible strikes but said Iran is open to talks.

Banking stocks moved amid reports that U.S. regulators may lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (ESLR) for major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley from 5% to a 3.5%-4.5% range, easing capital requirements.

In corporate news, Peloton gained nearly 2% following successful cost cuts and financing efforts. Hasbro rose after announcing a 3% workforce reduction in response to higher tariffs. Circle Internet Group surged 20% after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, laying the groundwork for stablecoin regulation—a move seen as pivotal for crypto adoption.

This combination of monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and crypto legislation is keeping markets on edge.