Bank of Korea Holds Interest Rates Steady as Weak Won Limits Policy Flexibility 
Japan’s Inflation Edges Higher in October as BOJ Faces Growing Pressure to Hike Rates 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
Singapore Maintains Steady Monetary Outlook as Positive Output Gap Persists into 2025 
Kazakhstan Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 18% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Fed Officials Split as Powell Weighs December Interest Rate Cut 
Fed Meeting Sparks Division as Markets Brace for Possible Rate Cut 
Japan’s Finance Minister Signals Alignment With BOJ as Rate Hike Speculation Grows 
BOJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi Set for Key Meeting Amid Yen Slide and Rate-Hike Debate 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 30th July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 97 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 8.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 88.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 8.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 84.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 7.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 2.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 29.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 63.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 26.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 59.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 10.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened for near and far months.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 97.3 percent probability compared to 85.7 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 68.6 percent probability instead of 60.3 percent probability just a week ago.
