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Positioning in the FTSE China A50 index turned neutral last week after months of bearish sentiment, following Beijing’s recent stimulus package, according to Citigroup strategists.
Both the FTSE China A50 and the Hang Seng Index saw their largest weekly increase in positioning from new risk flows, Citi said in a note released Monday. While most regional indexes have seen similar movements, the overall increase in notional levels remains moderate. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has shown the strongest bullish positioning, reaching its highest level in three years.
U.S. Markets Show Strong Bullish Sentiment
In the U.S., investor activity surged as nearly $18 billion in new risk flows were directed into the S&P 500 last week, along with around $5 billion into the Nasdaq. Citi noted that the S&P is approaching "one-sided and extended positioning," with long net notional at the 94th percentile. Despite this, the average profit from long positions remains small, reducing overall positioning risk.
The Nasdaq shifted from neutral to bullish, while positioning in the broader Russell 2000 index remained largely unchanged. Strategists noted that “all three U.S. indexes exhibit an increasingly bullish skew.” Short positions across the U.S. indices tracked are currently at a loss, with a potential for short covering, particularly in the Nasdaq.
“Although average loss levels here are modest (-2.5%), the larger than average (68th percentile) short notional could be under pressure if the momentum continues for the growth/tech-heavy index,” Citi strategists said.
Europe's Neutral Stance Amid Economic Concerns
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index remains mostly neutral, despite rising risk flows and weaker economic indicators, including contracting PMIs and a declining Ifo Germany business index. However, positioning edged higher, indicating potential interest in value opportunities following China’s stimulus announcement. Meanwhile, positioning in the DAX, FTSE, and Euro Banks remained unchanged, with exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows flat for the Euro Stoxx and negative across the DAX, FTSE, and Euro Banks.
