Japan Signals Surprise Yen Intervention Strategy as BOJ Hawkish Stance Puts FX Traders on Alert 
US Stock Futures Hold Steady Ahead of June Jobs Report as Fed Rate Outlook Remains in Focus 
Japan Signals Preference for Low Interest Rates as BOJ Policy Debate Intensifies 
Mary Daly Says AI Uncertainty Clouds Fed Rate Outlook Despite Restrictive Policy 
U.S. Dollar Drops as Weak Jobs Data Boosts Fed Pause Bets, Yen Jumps on Intervention Talk 
Goldman Sachs Says China Competition Weighs More on EU Growth Than Trade Deficit 
Malaysia Central Bank Moves to Support Ringgit Amid Foreign Fund Outflows 
US Resumes Dollar Shipments to Iraq After Months-Long Suspension 
US Jobs Report Preview: June Payroll Growth Seen Slowing as Fed Rate Decision Looms 
Moody’s Says Peru’s President-Elect Keiko Fujimori Could Boost Investor Confidence 
China Services PMI Beats Forecasts as Strong Demand Supports June Growth 
Wall Street Ends Mixed as Weak Jobs Data Lowers Fed Rate Hike Bets, Chip Stocks Tumble 
BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise as Weak Yen and Strong U.S. Jobs Data Increase Pressure 
China Sets 1.25% Overnight Reverse Repo Rate Below Market Expectations 
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
Gold Price Today: Bullion Heads for First Weekly Gain as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Eases Rate Hike Fears 
The FOMC would like to see more hard data which indicate that the US economy is really heading for a growth rate of 2% and that inflation is accelerating towards the 2% target as well.
Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes brought some relief for the Mexican peso, which had been under pressure in the earlier part of yesterday’s session.
However, we fear that the peso trades as a proxy for deteriorating emerging market sentiment, due to its low cost of carry, correlation with the oil price and low transaction costs.
The dollar came under pressure after the minutes of the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers were still divided over the need to raise interest rates this year.
Given moves in the likes of BRL in recent days, one wonders whether EMFX markets are going to take a breather over the coming days from what has been a blistering rally since the Brexit vote.
In our view investors should wait for Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole next week before deciding upon a direct course of action, but in any case it makes sense to tighten stops on long EM positions. All good things come to an end eventually.
It seems to be clear that it would probably take the FOMC until December to gather sufficient hard data on growth, the labor market and inflation to hike the Fed funds rate. The Fed wants to be 200% sure before taking another rate step. The dollar has come under slight pressure after the release of the minutes and will probably not receive sufficient support.
USDMXN has declined from the highs of 19.5174 to the current 19.0791 levels, loss of almost 7.4% in just two and half months and technicals are indicative of further dips in the days to come.
