Market Roundup
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•French Jun Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.2%,-0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French GDP (YoY) 4.2% ,4.5% previous
•German Jun Import Price Index (YoY) 29.9% forecast, 30.6% previous
• German Jun Import Price Index (MoM) 29.9%, 30.6% previous
•Swiss Jun Retail Sales (YoY) 1.2%0.8%, -1.6% previous
• German Jul Unemployment Rate 5.4%, 5.4% forecast, 5.3% previous
• German Unemployment Change 48K, 15K forecast,133K previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.5% , 1.8% forecast, 4.0% previous
•EU Jul CPI (YoY) 8.9% ,8.6% forecast, 8.6% previous
•Italian Jul CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.6% forecast,1.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) 4.0%,3.4% forecast, 5.4% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) 0.7% ,0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2) 1.20% previous
•12:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2% forecast, 1.4% previous
•12:30 US Jun Personal Income (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Jun Personal Spending (MoM) 0.9% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Jun PCE price index (MoM) 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun PCE Price index (YoY) 6.3 previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.7% forecast, 4.7% previous
•12:30 Canada May GDP (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) 2.89% previous
•13:45 US Jul Chicago PMI 55.0 forecast, 56.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 51.1 forecast, 51.1 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.80% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations 47.3 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Current Conditions 57.1 previous
•14:58 US Jun Dallas Fed PCE 3.00% previous
•15:00 Canada Apr Budget Balance -25.75B previous
•15:00 Canada Apr Budget Balance (YoY) -95.57B
•17:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 599 previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 758 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as euro zone growth beat expectations, while the dollar dipped as traders await fresh U.S. data for clues to the outlook for rates. The euro zone economy grew much faster than expected in the second quarter, but economists said it might be the economy's last hurrah before ever-higher inflation and supply chain problems cause a mild recession in the second half of the year.The stronger growth came despite stagnation in the bloc's biggest economy Germany, where high inflation and fears of a gas crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine have caused consumer and business sentiment to plummet. The EU's statistics office said euro zone gross domestic product rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period for a 4.0% year-on-year gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0249(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0285(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0185(21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0108(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied against the dollar traders to ramped up bearish bets before a Bank of England policy meeting next week. Investors are waiting for the Bank of England monetary policy meeting next Thursday, there have been few domestic drivers for sterling in recent weeks. The BoE will likely shy away from such a large interest rate rise in August and stick with the more modest 25 bps increases it has been delivering, but it is a close call, a poll of economists found this week. Latest positioning data show investors have consolidated their bearish bets on the pound at $4.3 billion, not far from a near two-year peak of $6.2 billion in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2326(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2104(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.2051(30DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders awaited fresh U.S. data for clues to the outlook for rates. As inflation surges across major markets and central bankers fight to raise rates without killing off growth, riskier markets like stocks have tended to react positively to any perceived softening in sentiment on the part of policymakers. After Thursday data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter, stocks rose as traders bet rates would rise more slowly. Euro zone numbers on Friday, meanwhile, beat expectations, yet recession fears are mounting as energy inflation continues to bite in the face of conflict in Ukraine .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9583(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9646(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9500(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9419 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Friday on bets that U.S. interest rates are nearing a peak after data showed the world's biggest economy unexpectedly contracted in the June quarter. Futures markets predict that U.S. interest rates will peak by December this year compared with June 2023 at the start of July and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 bps next year to support slowing growth. The upshot of this rapid drop in rate rise expectations has been a big driver for the dollar's weakness against the yen with the greenback slumping nearly 2.5% versus the Japanese unit this week, its biggest weekly drop since late March. Against the dollar, the yen climbed 0.8% on Friday to 133.17 yen to its highest levels since mid-June. Strong resistance can be seen at 134.24 (50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.18(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.70 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.14 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stock markets are expected to open on a positive note on Friday amidst data that showed the U.S. economy contracting by 0.90 percent in the second quarter, that triggered both fears of a recession as a well as hopes of a slowdown in the Fed's rate hiking spree.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.18% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.54% percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.64 %percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a more than three-week high on Friday and was bound for a weekly rise, supported by a softer dollar and bets that the Federal Reserve may cool the pace of rate hikes as economic risks deepen.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,761.05 per ounce by 1040 GMT, and has gained about 2% this week.U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $1,776.20.
Oil prices rose in European trading on Friday as attention turned to next week's OPEC+ meeting and expectations that it will dash U.S. hopes for a supply boost.
Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, gained $2.30 to trade at $109.44 a barrel by 1200 GMT after touching their highest since July 5. The more active October contract was up $2.24 at $104.07.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.20 to $98.62 a barrel.
