Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Sep) 4.6%, 4.6% forecast,4.7% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 4.8%, 5.0% forecast,5.0% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Oct) 29.0K,17.6K forecast,0.4K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep) -22K,91K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.0%,4.9% forecast,4.8% previous
• Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 1.908%,1.918% previous
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) -78.7 , -77.5 forecast, -80.0 previous
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 38.5, 41.0 forecast,39.3 previous
• EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 25.0, 23.5 forecast,22.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 17:00 UK BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro initially dipped but later regained ground on Tuesday as investors turned cautious on risk and awaited key data following the expected end of the U.S. government shutdown. Market participants anticipate the closure to conclude within days after the U.S. Senate on Monday approved a compromise bill to restore federal funding, halting President Donald Trump’s plan to reduce the federal workforce.A series of upcoming economic indicators are expected to shed light on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders now assign a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next month.Meanwhile,German investor sentiment weakened unexpectedly in November. The ZEW economic research institute reported a decline in its economic sentiment index to 38.5 from 39.3 in October, signaling a more cautious outlook among investors. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling extended fall against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed Britain's labour market cooled noticeably in the third quarter .British wage growth slowed in the three months to September, according to data on Tuesday that will bolster expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut next month.Wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed slightly to 4.6% in the three months to September compared with a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. Wage growth excluding bonuses in the private sector a key metric for the BoE cooled to 4.2% in the three months to September, as the central bank had predicted in forecasts published at the start of the month. The Bank of England is closely watching pay growth for signs of how persistent domestic inflation pressures are likely to prove. BoE officials held interest rates at 4% last week, and hinted that it could reduce borrowing costs in December .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3262(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid optimism that the U.S. government could soon reopen following a record 41-day shutdown. The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a funding bill to end the closure, sending it to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson aims to secure passage by Wednesday before forwarding it to President Donald Trump for approval.On the domestic front, sentiment improved sharply as consumer confidence surged in November. Westpac reported a 12.8% jump in its index to 103.8 the first reading above the 100 optimism threshold since February 2022 signaling renewed economic confidence and lowering expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Looking ahead, traders await Thursday’s October employment report, with a Reuters poll projecting a 15,000 job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, data likely to guide short-term direction for the Aussie. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6543(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hit nine month high against yen on Tuesday after Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for policymakers to go slow on interest rate hikes. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country's commitment to fiscal consolidation.The new prime minister also renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to go slow on interest rate hikes, despite signs that most central bank policymakers would prefer to see a resumption of monetary tightening sooner rather than later.Markets are watching to see when BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his first two-way meeting with the new prime minister, a symbolically important event that would signal both are communicating closely on monetary policy. The dollar rose 0.10% to 154.28 against the yen , after hitting 154.495, the highest level since February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a two-week high on Tuesday as optimism grew over a potential resolution to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.68 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to their highest levels in nearly three weeks on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations that a potential U.S. government reopening would resume the flow of economic data, ahead of a widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,140.60 per ounce at 1227 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since October 23 at $4,148.75, still below its peak of $4,381.21 on October 20.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as concerns over global oversupply were offset by uncertainty regarding the effects of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.41 a barrel by 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.42 a barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.48%.
