Market Roundup
•German Dec Factory Orders (MoM) 8.9%,-0.1%forecast,0.3% previous
•French Jan IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 39.6,42.6 previous
•Italian Jan IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 51.6,55.2 previous
•EU Jan M2 Money Supply (MoM) 41.3, 43.6 previous
•German Jan IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 36.3,37.0 previous
•Italian Dec Consumer Confidence 96.4, 103.6 previous
•Italian Jan Business Confidence 88.3, 95.4 previous
•UK Jan Construction PMI 48.8, 47.2 forecast,46.8 previous
•EU Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -1.1%,-0.9% forecast,-0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Dec Building Permits (MoM) 1.8% forecast,-3.9% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.0% previous
•15:00 Canada Jan Ivey PMI 55.0 forecast,56.3 previous
•15:00 Canada Jan Ivey PMI n.s.a 43.7 previous
•15:00 US Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.2 forecast,44.7 previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
•18:00 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday as investors shrugged off data that showed German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped in December. German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped in December, posting their highest month-on-month increase in more than three years, driven by "an exceptionally" high number of aircraft orders, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday.Orders rose by 8.9% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the largest increase since June 2020. A poll of analysts had expected industrial orders to remain flat. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.0732%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0803(( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0861 ( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0722(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: the British pound made a modest recovery against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday following a significant decline the previous day as investors closely analysed the monetary policies of both the British and U.S. central banks. Investors dialed down their expectations for an imminent rate cut on Friday by the Bank of England (BoE), leading to an increase in gilt yields after strong U.S. payroll data and remarks regarding the policy outlook from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, who indicated that the first rate cut is still some way off. Sterling was up 0.1% at $1.2550, after hitting $1.25175 the day before, its lowest since Dec. 13. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2590(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2632(Feb 5th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2510(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2438(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders revised their expectations for a near-term interest rate cut in the United States. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued to push back against the prospect of near-term rate cuts, in an interview aired on Sunday.U.S. services sector growth picked up last month and employment rebounded, data showed on Monday. But suppliers appeared to fall behind, leaving a measure of input costs at an 11-month high. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose 0.1% to 104.58, having touched 104.60 on Monday, its highest since Nov. 14. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8725(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8748(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8640(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8572(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Tuesday as investors cautiously reassessed Federal Reserve rate-cut bets. Global markets have been focused on the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate cut, after a strong slate of economic data along with resistance from central bankers led investors to scale back their rate-cut bets.Markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of the Fed standing pat on rates in March, compared with a 33% chance at the start of the year, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth accelerated in January and wages increased by the most in nearly two years, signs of persistent strength in the labour market that encourage the Fed to start easing later rather than sooner. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.03(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.63(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.21 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Tuesday as bumper earnings from BP helped offset losses in UBS and Nordic Semiconductor, while investors took comfort from fresh stimulus for China's battered financial markets.
At (GMT 13:08 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.49 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat on Tuesday, languishing near a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar held firm on growing expectations the Federal Reserve will not be more aggressive with rate cuts this year.
Spot gold was steady at $2,025.53 per ounce, as of 1218 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Jan. 25 in the previous session.U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,041.60 per ounce.
Oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken's efforts in the Middle East aimed at halting the Gaza war and easing tensions in a crucial oil-producing region.
Brent crude futures gained 55 cents to $78.54 a barrel by 1224 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 48 cents to $73.26. Both contracts gained nearly 1% on Monday, rising for the first time in four sessions.
