Market Roundup
• French Aug Manufacturing PMI 42.1, 44.4 forecast 44.0 previous
•French Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 52.7,49.1 forecast 49.1 previous
•French Aug Services PMI 55.0, 50.2 forecast 50.1 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 42.1 , 43.4, forecast 43.2 previous
•German Aug Services PMI 51.4,52.3 forecast 52.5 previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI 45.6,45.7 forecast 45.8 previous
•EU S&P Aug Global Composite PMI 51.2, 50.1 forecast ,50.2 previous
•EU Aug Services Aug PMI 53.3 ,51.7 forecast ,51.9 previous
•UK Aug Composite PMI 53.4, 52.9 forecast, 52.8 previous
•UK Aug Manufacturing PMI 52.5, 52.1 forecast, 52.1 previous
•UK Services PMI 53.3 ,52.8 forecast 52.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Chicago Fed National Activity 0.03 forecast, 0.05 previous
•12:30 US Jul Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K 1 forecast,864K previous
•12:30 US Jul Initial Jobless Claims 232K forecast, 227K previous
•12:30 US Jul Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.50K previous
•13:45 US Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.5,49.6 previous
•13:45 US Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 53.2 forecast, 54.3 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 54.0 forecast, 55.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales 3.94M forecast, 3.89M previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales (MoM )1.3% forecast, -5.4% previous
•15:00 US Aug KC Fed Composite Index -9 forecast, -13 previous
•15:00 US Aug KC Fed Manufacturing Index -12 previous
•17:00 US 30-Year TIPS Auction 2.200% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained near its highest level in over a year on Thursday, following mixed PMI data from the Eurozone. The flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the eurozone revealed unexpected strength in business activity for August, rising to 51.2 despite firms increasing prices. In France, the PMI surged to a 27-month high of 55.0, driven by a boost from the Olympics and surpassing forecasts. In contrast, Germany's business activity contracted for the second consecutive month, with the decline deeper than anticipated, according to the PMI data. Markets are now looking for further details on the size of the rate cut at the Jackson Hole conference, which begins later today. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech on Friday. The euro was steady at $1.1137. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1175(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1098(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1070 (Aug 20th low).
GBP/USD: The pound surged to a 13-month peak against the dollar on Thursday, buoyed by British business activity data that highlighted consistent growth momentum for the second half of 2024. The preliminary flash estimate of the UK's S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.4 in August, up from 52.8 in July, marking the highest reading since April. This was above the median forecast of 52.9 from poll of economists. Readings above 50 indicate growth, and S&P Global noted that these figures suggest the economy is expanding at a quarterly rate of 0.3%. The pound's recent appreciation against the dollar is attributed to the weakening of the U.S. currency, driven by growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September and continue to do so several times by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3107(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3128(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3006(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2936(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar remained largely subdued against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium . The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium for global central bankers begins on Thursday, with Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Friday. Markets are hoping Powell's speech will provide further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory.Federal Reserve minutes released on Thursday indicated that an interest rate cut is expected in September, as a "vast majority" of officials signaled that such a move is likely. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8570 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8635(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8486(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8403(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rebounded from two week low against yen on Thursday as markets awaited signals on the monetary policy path by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium for global central bankers starts on Thursday, with Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday. Markets are expecting Powell's speech to shed more light on the U.S. interest rate outlook. On the data front, Japan's factory activity contracted in August due to weak demand, though the decline eased. In contrast, the service sector expanded, signaling positive conditions in certain industries, according to a business survey released on Thursday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.35(Aug 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.36(50 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.42(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Thursday as investors reviewed a slew of economic data from major European economies and awaited the start of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Thursday as investors prepared for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, looking for clues about the anticipated rate cut in September.
As of 1020 GMT, spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,507.32 per ounce, following a record high of $2,531.60 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $2,543.40.
Oil prices were steady on Thursday after declining for four consecutive days amid concerns about the global demand outlook. However, a decrease in U.S. fuel inventories helped support prices. At 1031 GMT.
Brent crude futures were up by 31 cents, or 0.41%, trading at $76.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 18 cents, or 0.25%, to $71.80.
