Market Roundup
•French Exports (Sep) 48.6B , 49.3B previous
•French Imports (Sep) 56.9B ,57.0B previous
•French Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 276,255.0M, 260,783.0M previous
•French Trade Balance (Sep) -8.3B ,-7.0B forecast, -7.7B previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Q4) -27, -33 forecast, -19 previous
•Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) -4.0% forecast,-3.2% previous
•Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.4% ,-0.4% forecast , 0.0% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 0.7% 0.9% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 1.2% 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 128.1B previous
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Oct) 4.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Employment Change (Oct) 27.9K 46.7K previous
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Oct) 112.0K previous
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Oct) -65.3K previous
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Oct) 64.9% previous
•13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.6% 6.5% previous
•15:00 U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 2.7% previous
•15:00 U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 3.0% previous
•15:00 U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) 74.1 previous
•15:00 U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 71.0 forecast,70.5 previous
•15:00 U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Nov) 64.9 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 479 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as investors bet the European Central Bank would follow a faster monetary easing path than the Bank of England. Investors expect the ECB to be more dovish than the BoE as the euro-zone economy is likely to be hit harder than the UK's if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump implements higher tariffs when he takes office on Jan. 20. Money markets expect the ECB deposit and facility rate to fall to 2% by June from the current 3.25%. The euro fell 0.17% to $1.0779. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0779(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.08(6.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0747(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Friday as markets weighed the impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House and what that means for the U.S. economy and its interest rate outlook. The U.S. dollar had lost ground in the previous session as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency following his election victory. That pushed sterling further from the psychologically important $1.30 level. The central bank's rate trajectory has been clouded by Trump's election victory as his plans for hefty import tariffs are widely expected to stoke inflation.Traders have since reacted to the outcome of the election by trimming bets on rate cuts next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2983(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3062 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2878 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2850 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian eased against dollar on Friday as investors weighed security and trade implications of Donald Trump's return to the White House. Focus is also on the conclusion of China's week-long National People's Congress Standing Committee where investors are expecting further stimulus measures from Beijing. Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has sparked concerns that his proposed tariffs, particularly those targeting China, could negatively affect economies that rely on China as their top trading partner.At GMT 11:52, the pair was trading down 0.69% at 0.6633 retreating from daily high 0.6680. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6677(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6729(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6629 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6567(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Friday after Finance Minister Kato signaled that Japan would respond appropriately to excess FX moves.Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday after Japanese authorities would take appropriate steps against excess moves in the foreign exchange market. Kato's comments were mostly in line with those by top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura the day earlier, which represented the government's strongest warning against speculative currency moves in recent months. The dollar was down at 0.29 percent at 152.48 per yen.The dollar against a basket of currencies ticked up 0.14% to 104.50, on track to gain about 0.2% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.45(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.02(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.10(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched down on Friday on the back of mixed earnings results, with heavyweight luxury firms among the top decliners, while investors assessed China's latest steps to aid its ailing economy.
At (GMT 12:07),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.70 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated on Friday and were on track for their biggest weekly fall in over five months, as markets digested Donald Trump's victory and its potential impact on the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,688.74 per ounce as of 1058 GMT and was down 1.7% for the week. U.S. gold futures shed 0.4% to $2,695.80.
Oil prices fell on Friday on receding fears over the impact of Hurricane Rafael on oil and gas infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf while investors also weighed up fresh Chinese economic stimulus.
Brent crude oil futures lost $1.17, or 1.55%, to $74.46 a barrel by 1051 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.31, or 1.81%, at $71.05.
