Euro Hits 4-Year High as Safe-Haven Demand Grows Amid Trade and Geopolitical Risks

The euro surged to its highest level since late 2021, climbing to $1.1589 before settling at $1.1568, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade truce. Concerns flared after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered some personnel to withdraw from the Middle East, warning it could become a "dangerous place" and reiterating his stance on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Safe-haven demand drove gains for the Swiss franc, which rose 0.8% to 0.8138, and the Japanese yen, which climbed 0.6% to 143.70. Analysts pointed to the weakening U.S. dollar as a barometer of sentiment around the fragile trade environment. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.35% to 98.108, hitting its lowest point since April 2022.

The euro also gained strength from a hawkish European Central Bank, signaling a potential pause in its easing cycle following inflation’s return to the 2% target. ECB official Isabel Schnabel attributed the euro’s strength to renewed investor confidence rather than rate differentials.

On trade, Trump hinted at extending a July 8 deadline for talks but confirmed the U.S. would issue “take-it-or-leave-it” offers to multiple countries, keeping tariff risks alive. Analysts warn these moves could keep pressure on U.S. inflation, especially with core PCE data still showing elevated price levels.

Meanwhile, the onshore Chinese yuan rose slightly to 7.1818, though future gains remain limited due to ongoing trade tensions. Barclays expects medium-term depreciation risks for the yuan.

Markets have now priced in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, with an 80% probability of a September move and full pricing of 100 basis points in cuts by late 2026.