EU-China Summit Faces Low Expectations Amid Trade Tensions and Ukraine Disputes

The EU-China summit set for Thursday is drawing limited expectations as geopolitical and economic tensions mount between Brussels, Beijing, and Washington. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Antonio Costa will meet Chinese leaders in Beijing to address contentious issues such as rare earths export controls and China's position on the war in Ukraine.

Analysts say hopes for substantial progress are slim. The summit was shortened to a single day, with a planned business roundtable relocated from Hefei to Beijing. A minor joint statement on climate change may be the only deliverable.

Von der Leyen has recently taken a firmer tone, accusing China of aiding Russia’s wartime economy and flooding global markets with industrial overcapacity. The EU, meanwhile, is under trade pressure from the U.S., with looming tariffs threatening European exports, while China demands resolution on EU tariffs targeting Chinese EVs.

Trade frictions are escalating. China has retaliated against EU restrictions on medical devices and sanctioned French cognac. Its rare earth curbs, although aimed at the U.S., are impacting European industries, prompting demands for clarity.

China, in return, is pushing to revive a stalled EU-China investment deal and lobbying against U.S. tech export restrictions affecting Dutch chipmaker ASML. Sources say Beijing sees a weakened EU-U.S. alignment and aims to leverage the opportunity.

Diplomatic insiders report pessimism on the European side, especially over disagreements regarding Ukraine. Beijing has denied supplying dual-use goods to Russia and accuses the EU of politicizing trade ties.

“This summit will likely add to the long list of underwhelming EU-China dialogues,” said Noah Barkin of Rhodium Group, reflecting the deepening economic and strategic divide between the two global powers.