ECB's QE2 announcement more likely in December

ECB President Mario Draghi manages to "force" a decision next week, but the bar on an immediate response seems to be high. 

An expectation of announcement of QE2 is extended from October to December. It is believed that the dataflow is more and more consistent with an additional layer of monetary stimulus, but the ECB-speak - in particular Benoît Coeuré on Monday - suggests that a consensus may yet take some time to form at the Council. 

Analysts would not be surprised by "compromise solutions" next week, with for instance strong hints at a "thorough review of the programme by year-end." The more the ECB waits, the more it will have to do to convince the market it can deliver on its price stability objective. Further, the lack of a quick response could cost the Euro area's GDP growth 0.2/0.3ppt in 2016, still leaving a decent pace (above potential) but with no acceleration relative to this year, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.