Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Delayed U.S. Inflation Data as Trade Tensions Simmer

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday, supported by investor caution ahead of the delayed U.S. consumer inflation report due Friday. The greenback gained ground against most major currencies as markets digested renewed trade tension between Washington and Beijing, following reports that the Trump administration may impose curbs on software-powered exports to China.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.05% to 98.979 as of 00:50 GMT, reflecting a modest uptick in demand. The dollar strengthened 0.17% to 152.21 yen, touching its highest level since October 14. Meanwhile, the euro slipped 0.06% to $1.1604, and sterling dropped 0.09% to $1.3345, weighed by persistent pressure after British inflation data defied forecasts.

Markets reacted cautiously after data showed UK inflation held steady at 3.8%, contrary to expectations of an increase. Traders raised the probability of a Bank of England rate cut by December to 75%, though those odds later eased to around 61%. Analysts noted that expectations for easier policy were driving sterling weakness.

In Japan, the yen fell to a one-week low as investors awaited details of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic stimulus plan, reportedly expected to exceed last year’s $92 billion package to help offset inflation pressures. Despite speculation, most economists expect the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes until December or January.

Market sentiment remains subdued as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown delays official economic data releases. Analysts say even the upcoming CPI report may not shift expectations, with a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut already priced in for October 29.

Amid ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and limited macro data, investors remain cautious. “Markets are marking time,” said Gavin Friend of National Australia Bank. “There’s not a lot of reliable news, and most think the Fed will cut again soon.”