Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key U.S. Economic Data and Trade War Signals

The U.S. dollar started the week on steady footing, trading at 143.57 yen and $1.1360 per euro, as investors braced for a wave of economic data that could reveal the impact of President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war. Despite stabilizing, the dollar remains on track for its largest monthly decline in nearly two and a half years, having dropped over 4% against both the euro and yen in April.

Signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China last week, including reduced tariffs and more conciliatory rhetoric, helped the greenback recover slightly. However, uncertainty persists, as Beijing denies active trade negotiations despite Trump’s claims of progress. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also refrained from confirming any ongoing tariff talks.

Markets are now focused on upcoming key indicators, including April’s U.S. jobs report, first-quarter GDP data, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE. A slowdown in hiring is anticipated, potentially influencing the dollar’s trajectory.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hovered near recent highs at $0.64, with traders eyeing Wednesday’s inflation data ahead of an expected rate cut. The New Zealand dollar also remained firm near $0.60. In Canada, voters head to the polls Monday, but little currency volatility is expected, with the Canadian dollar steady at C$1.3874.

The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy on Thursday, with no major changes expected. Attention will be on the outlook, particularly amid speculation about U.S.-Japan trade talks influencing currency dynamics. Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, denied reports that the U.S. favors a weaker dollar.