Crude Oil Prices Dip as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Demand Outlook

Crude oil prices slipped in early Asian trading Tuesday, pressured by weaker demand expectations amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China—the world's largest oil consumers. Brent crude futures dropped 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87. Both benchmarks had already declined more than $1 on Monday.

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war, fueled by President Donald Trump's tariffs on all U.S. imports and retaliatory measures from China, has heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters predict a recession could hit later this year, putting additional downward pressure on oil demand forecasts.

Reflecting these concerns, Barclays cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel, citing rising trade risks and an expected oil supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day driven by changes in OPEC+ production strategies. Several OPEC+ members are reportedly considering increasing output again in June, potentially exacerbating the supply glut.

Oil market expert Philip Verleger warned that prices could see a sharp decline if exporting countries accelerate production hikes. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpiles are projected to have risen by 500,000 barrels for the week ending April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters survey. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its inventory data Tuesday, followed by official figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.