China’s Tariffs Push Soybean Trade Towards Brazil, Hitting U.S. Exports

China’s latest retaliation to U.S. tariffs is intensifying a shift away from American agricultural imports, especially soybeans, with Brazil emerging as the primary beneficiary. On Friday, Beijing imposed additional 34% duties on all U.S. goods, on top of 10-15% tariffs introduced in March on $21 billion worth of agricultural products.

Analysts say the new levies make U.S. farm imports “non-viable,” with traders expecting China to increase reliance on Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay for soybeans, and Australia and Argentina for wheat. Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group warned that rising tariffs could cost the U.S. valuable export markets. "We’re pissing off everybody," he said, citing the broad reach of U.S. trade barriers.

The most-active soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) dropped 3.4% to $9.77 per bushel—its lowest level on a 2025 continuous chart. European traders predict the EU will impose its own soybean tariffs, further squeezing U.S. exporters.

Brazil is set for a record soybean export surge to China, aided by a strong harvest and rising port premiums, which spiked to $1 per bushel above Chicago prices after the tariff news. Carlos Mera of Rabobank noted Brazil’s growing role, while Sol Arcidiacono of HedgePoint said the geopolitical tension could spur expanded soybean cultivation in South America.

Meanwhile, China also canceled import approvals for sorghum from U.S.-owned C&D Inc. and poultry products from Mountaire Farms and other suppliers, citing food safety concerns.

China remains the largest buyer of U.S. farm goods, but imports have declined for two straight years, from $42.8 billion in 2022 to $29.25 billion in 2024, a trend likely to continue as the trade war escalates.