South Korea’s Weak Won Struggles as Retail Investors Pour Money Into U.S. Stocks 
Singapore Budget 2026 Set for Fiscal Prudence as Growth Remains Resilient 
Gold Prices Slide Below $5,000 as Strong Dollar and Central Bank Outlook Weigh on Metals 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Vietnam’s Trade Surplus With US Jumps as Exports Surge and China Imports Hit Record 
Dow Hits 50,000 as U.S. Stocks Stage Strong Rebound Amid AI Volatility 
U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
Trump Endorses Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Ahead of Crucial Election Amid Market and China Tensions 
The latest data continue to suggest weakened growth momentum and the growth outlook. Continued policy easing is anticipated to bolster the slowdown amid accelerating capital outflows and CNY depreciation pressures.
Barclays recommends the following actions in order to accelerate the growth momentum:
- USDCNY is seemed to moving to 6.80 by year-end. While there are downside risks to their USDCNY forecast, they hold long a USDCNH call spread and long USDCNH 6m forward recommendation as markets are not sufficiently pricing in the prospects of a sharper weakening of the CNY. Slower growth, capital outflows, a CNY that is 5-10% expensive, and rising global uncertainty would steer China away from pegging to the rising dollar. This happening in reaction to a stronger USD environment as well as the need to stabilise outflows.
- Look to pay 1y CNH CCS, as RMB weakness is likely to drive forward points higher and reduce the attractiveness of CNH-denominated assets. In NDIRS, weak GDP growth and further easing by the PBoC should keep rates well-anchored. Nevertheless, we stay on the sidelines and wait for better levels, with the curve fairly reflecting these dynamics.
