Canada Weighs Oil Export Limits as U.S. Trade War Escalates

Canada is considering non-tariff measures, including restricting oil exports to the U.S. or imposing export duties, if trade tensions with Washington escalate further, Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Tuesday.

"We are looking at restricting supply, imposing duties—potentially on energy, minerals, and more," Wilkinson told Reuters. He also warned that Canada could target critical minerals, forcing the U.S. to depend more on China. "Everything is on the table," he added.

This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, though he later suggested negotiations could lower them. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to U.S. homes but later suspended the move pending talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean, whose province produces most of Canada’s oil, has pushed for de-escalation, offering solutions to Washington. However, Wilkinson suggested Canada could also target U.S. ethanol, which has seen record exports to Canada due to its lower cost under U.S. subsidies.

Canada, the top oil supplier to the U.S., ships about 4 million barrels per day, mainly to Midwest refineries designed for its crude. Wilkinson acknowledged that while alternatives like the Trans Mountain pipeline and rail exist, completely replacing U.S. exports would be difficult.

Canada has already threatened tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports, with an initial $30 billion identified. Further measures, including ethanol tariffs, remain under consideration if Trump follows through with his planned 25% tariffs on Canadian goods in April.

"We started the day in one place, things went sideways, and we ended up back where we were," Wilkinson said, emphasizing the urgency of resolving the dispute swiftly.