BCA Research Warns U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Could Collapse, Maintains Cautious Equity Outlook

BCA Research is cautiously optimistic about the recently announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire but is warning investors that the truce remains highly unstable. The firm's chief geopolitical strategist, Matt Gertken, puts the odds of the ceasefire breaking down before the end of April at 40%, and estimates a 60% likelihood it won't survive beyond 12 months.

Despite these risks, BCA acknowledges that the agreement offers short-term relief for equity markets. Chief Strategist Peter Berezin noted the ceasefire creates enough breathing room for the firm to shift to a neutral stance on stocks over the near term. That said, BCA is holding firm on its 12-month underweight position on equities, pointing to unresolved geopolitical tensions and growing headwinds facing the artificial intelligence sector.

One of the firm's central concerns is how hastily the deal appears to have been reached. BCA highlighted a significant disconnect between what U.S. and Iranian officials claim was actually agreed upon, particularly around nuclear enrichment and Israel's ongoing operations in Lebanon. Adding another layer of complexity, BCA flagged that President Donald Trump reportedly expressed openness to letting Iran collect tolls on Strait of Hormuz transit traffic, even describing the arrangement to ABC News as a potential "joint venture" — an unusual concession that analysts say could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets.

On the technology front, BCA cautioned that the AI trade faces structural pressure, arguing that the very innovations driving AI adoption will eventually squeeze profit margins across the tech sector.

From a monetary policy perspective, the firm believes rate expectations remain overly hawkish regardless of how the ceasefire situation unfolds. BCA also sees the U.S. dollar poised to resume its downward trend and views gold as a structural buy on any price dips.