Australia Q1 GDP likely to have risen 0.9 pct q/q, 2.8 pct y/y: ANZ Research

Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year is expected to have risen a strong 0.9 percent q/q. This follows a rise of 0.4 percent q/q in Q4 and would see annual growth pick up to 2.8 percent.  At 0.9 percent q/q and 2.8 percent y/y, GDP growth looks to be a broadly in line with the RBA forecasts in the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy, according to the latest report from ANZ Research.

Once again, the household consumption and wages numbers will be a key focus in the GDP report. While growth in retail sales volumes was weak in Q1, retail accounts for only around 30 percent of consumption.

With consumer confidence quite elevated in Q1, the weakness in retail is expected not to be fully reflected in overall consumption, with spending on motor vehicles and services expected to provide some offset.

On wages, the GDP measure of average wages will be closely watched. Preliminary data suggest that this is likely to show ongoing modest growth, but that markets are well past the worst, with other measures of wages growth showing varying degrees of improvement.

"This will clearly be a key focus for the RBA, with the Bank firmly on hold until it can see a material acceleration in wages growth," the report added.

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