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U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains 
Most Asian currencies steadied on Wednesday following overnight losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on hotter-than-expected inflation data, reinforcing concerns over President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade tariffs.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.6% overnight, driven by June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing a 0.3% monthly increase—the largest gain since January. Core inflation rose 2.9% year-over-year, just under the 3% forecast, but still higher than May’s figure. ING analysts noted early signs of tariff-related price increases in select goods, supporting expectations that inflation could rise further through the summer.
Despite the slightly softer core inflation figure, analysts said the data leaves the door open for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September. However, the risk of stronger inflation in July and August could delay any policy easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously warned that tariffs would likely elevate prices during the summer months.
Investors remain cautious, particularly amid political pressure from Trump and allies calling for Powell’s removal, creating further uncertainty around Fed leadership.
The Japanese yen led overnight losses, with USD/JPY rising nearly 1% before stabilizing. South Korea’s won extended gains, with USD/KRW inching 0.2% higher. The Australian dollar edged up 0.2% after a 0.5% drop the day prior, while the Chinese yuan (USD/CNY and USD/CNH) rose 0.1% each.
The Indian rupee (USD/INR) and Singapore dollar (USD/SGD) traded flat.
Markets remain wary as Trump continues to threaten new tariffs, including a potential 19% duty on Indonesian imports, ahead of an August 1 deadline. While recent tariff threats have not triggered sharp moves, traders are holding back from large positions amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
