Market Roundup
• Japan Jul Overall wage income of employees 3.6%, 3.0% forecast, 4.5% previous
• Japan Jul Overtime Pay (YoY) -0.10,0.90% previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,640.5B, 1,542.9B previous
•Australia Jul Exports (MoM) 0.7%, 1.4% previous
•Australia Jul Imports (MoM) -0.8% 0.4% previous
•Australia Jul Trade Balance 6.009B, 5.050B forecast, 5.425B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•05:45 Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.3% previous
•05:45 Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•06:00 German Jul Factory Orders (MoM) -1.6% forecast, 3.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
The euro eded lower slightly on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. payrolls data, which could provide insights into the timing and pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts.In a week full of economic reports, investors are scrutinizing the incoming data to assess the health of the U.S. economy and labor market. The week began with weak manufacturing data on Tuesday, followed by mixed labor data on Wednesday, keeping markets on edge. On Thursday, attention will shift to the U.S. services industry report and jobless claims data. However, the main focus will be on Friday’s highly anticipated August nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to provide key insights into the economic outlook and whether the Federal Reserve will opt for a quarter or half percentage point rate cut this month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1077(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1132(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1022(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0968 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. payrolls data for further insights into the potential magnitude of an anticipated rate cut this month. Data released overnight revealed that U.S. job openings fell to a 3.5-year low in July, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. However, this decline alone is unlikely to justify a half-percentage-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday will be crucial for shaping Fed expectations. The ADP employment report, along with data on the U.S. services industry and jobless claims due later in the day, are also being closely monitored .Sterling GBP=D3 was little changed at $1.3147.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3223(Aug 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Thursday as investors digested Governor Michele Bullock comments and Australia’s trade surplus data. Australia's top central banker emphasized on Thursday that it is too early to consider near-term rate cuts, given that inflation remains elevated. In a speech in Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed that reducing inflation to the 2-3% target range continues to be the central bank's highest priority.On the data front, Australia’s trade surplus widened in July, Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the goods balance expanded to A$6.0 billion ($4.04 billion), up from a downwardly revised A$5.43 billion in June and exceeding market expectations of A$5.0 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6755(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6791(Sep 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6694(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6636(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: USD/JPY dropped to a one-month low as investors digested data indicating that real wages in Japan rose for the second consecutive month in July, Japanese real wages rose for the second consecutive month, possibly setting the stage for the central bank to consider another rate hike later this year. Inflation-adjusted real wages increased by 0.4% year-on-year in July, while total cash earnings climbed by 3.6%. The yen edged 0.26% higher to 143.56 per dollar during morning trade before easing, and has already gained nearly 2% for the week thus far.Strong resistance can be seen at 145.32 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.44 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.25 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average declined on Thursday, pressured by a stronger yen and losses in semiconductor-related stocks
The Nikkei 225 was down 0.35% at 36,917.44 by midday, after having fallen more than 1% earlier in the session.
Commodities Recap
Gold was little changed on Thursday as investors kept to the sidelines ahead of U.S. payrolls data that could provide more clues on the size of an expected rate cut this month.
Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $2,497.47 per ounce by 0222 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,527.60.
Oil prices ticked higher after dropping to multi-month lows, as major producers hinted at potentially postponing a planned output increase for next month and U.S. inventories decreased. However, the increase in prices was tempered by ongoing concerns about demand
Brent crude futures for November rose 15 cents, or 0.1%, to $72.85 at 0402 GMT after dropping 1.4% in the previous session to their lowest close since June 27, 2023.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for October were up 15 cents, or 0.22%, to $69.35 after dropping 1.6% on Wednesday to the lowest settlement since Dec. 11.
