America’s Roundup: Dollar holds firm, key data eyed for Fed rate outlook, Wall Street ends lower, Oil off highs but remains elevated

 Market Roundup

• France 12-Month BTF Auction 3.240%, 3.161% previous

•France 3-Month BTF Auction 2.700%, 2.639% previous

•France 6-Month BTF Auction 2.920%, 2.898% previous

•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.110%, 4.015% previous

•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.285%, 4.155% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

• 04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision  (Sep) 4.60% forecast, 4.35% previous

•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 1.7% forecast, 0.0% previous

•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Jul) 118.1, 116.5 previous

•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul) 1.7% forecast, 0.6% previous

 Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT) 

• 01:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

 Currency Summaries

EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as market digested ECB President Christine Lagarde and CB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos comments. Lagarde reiterated on Monday that interest rates would not necessarily move in line with energy costs.On the economy, Lagarde remained upbeat, saying manufacturing was performing solidly, the labour market remained resilient and investment should continue to support growth.Lagarde said fiscal support had increased to around 0.1 percentage point of euro zone GDP, while the measures were less temporary and targeted than previously expected.Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira said energy remains the main inflation driver, with higher natural gas prices posing a key risk this winter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar as investors increased bets on tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England amid persistent inflation pressures.The BoE has so far held back from tightening policy, even as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have responded to energy-driven inflation pressures with higher interest rates. Rising energy costs and increasingly hawkish signals from BoE policymakers have strengthened expectations of a rate increase as early as November.Money markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the November meeting, which would take the policy rate to 4%. Markets are also pricing in four rate increases by the middle of next year.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened hit 2-1/2month low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as uncertain prospects for Middle ​East peace talks bolstered safe-haven demand for the greenback   The US dollar held near ​a two-month high against a basket of major currencies as the US-Iran standoff pushed ‌up ⁠oil prices and Treasury yields.Gold lost 3.7%, while US crude oil futures were trading 0.8% higher at $93.12 a barrel. Oil is ​one of Canada's major exports.Canadian GDP data for July, ​due on ⁠Tuesday, could help guide expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike next month. Economists expect a flat reading compared to June. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4165 per US dollar , after touching its weakest intraday level since July ​9 at 1.4175. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4194(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4238(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4141(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4071(38.2%fib).

USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar initially dipped against the yen but recovered ground on Monday as markets digested fresh warnings from Japan’s currency authorities over excessive yen weakness.Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take at face value the “very clear” message delivered by Tokyo and Washington last week on the yen, signalling that authorities remain prepared to respond to sharp currency moves.Mimura declined to comment on whether Japan could intervene again to support the yen but said he remained neither satisfied nor reassured by the currency’s recent moves. His remarks underscored that Tokyo remains alert to renewed yen weakness and could consider action if moves become excessive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).

Equities Recap

 European shares were little changed on Monday as gains in British homebuilders were offset by rising oil prices and elevated bond yields, which weighed on risk appetite.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended down 0.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.01 percent.

U.S. stocks fell on Monday as oil prices and Treasury yields rose, with investors weighing uncertainty over the prospects for a peace deal in the Iran conflict and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Dow Jones closed down by  0.67 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.77% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.92%  percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold fell 4% on Monday to a more than seven-week low as rising oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, while a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields added further pressure on the metal.

Spot gold was down 3.5% at $4,136.81 per ounce as of 1:30 p.m. ​ET (1730 GMT), after falling to as much as $4,110.55, its lowest since August 5. US gold ​futures settled 3.5% lower at $4,168.40.

 Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday as concerns over ongoing supply disruptions outweighed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, with Qatari mediators pledging to hold talks with the United States and Iran aimed at securing a peace deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures settled up 96 cents, or 0.9%, at settle at $105.28 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 19 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $92.60.