FxWirePro: AUD/USD falls as hawkish Fed signals underpin dollar 
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Market Roundup
• Germany Factory Orders (Aug) -10.6%, -0.9% forecast, 3.2% previous
•France Government Budget Balance (Aug) -159.6B, -145.9B previous
•France Industrial Production (Aug) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) 3.0%, 3.0% previous
•Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep) 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•Spain Industrial Production (Aug) 1.5%, 2.5% previous
•Italy HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 46.5, 41.7 previous
•Germany HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 43.5, 48.7 previous
•France HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 39.8, 37.3 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 43.4, 43.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 46.1, 45.0 forecast, 44.3 previous
•Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) 0.8%, 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly 23.80K, 22.50K previous
•US Trade Balance (Aug) -105.60B, -100.80B forecast, -92.80B previous
•US Exports (Aug) 315.20B, 310.70B previous
•US Imports (Aug) 420.80B, 399.30B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Oct) 44.5 forecast, 45.6 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep) 65.2 forecast, 64.3 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a. (Sep) 62.7 previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -1.1% previous
•15:00 New Zealand Milk Auctions 3,868.0 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rebounded on Tuesday after falling to its lowest in 17 months in the previous day, as a rally in French government bonds allayed some concerns about stress in euro zone debt markets.French debt has been hit especially hard as politicians struggle to cap the budget deficit ahead of a divisive election in 2027, with the selloff on Monday weighing on the euro. The calling of a snap election in Spain added to the headwinds.Bond markets around the world have been battered in recent months due to expectations of sharp central bank rate hikes as energy prices have jumped due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, as well as concerns about high borrowing.The euro zone's currency climbed S 0.5% to $1.127, having slid to its lowest since May 2025 on Monday at $1.116. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as a retreat in bond yields and softer oil prices calmed investors following last week's bond-market volatility. Oil prices declined as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, although continued security risks in the region limited further losses. Government borrowing costs also eased after 10- and 30-year gilt yields , surged to multi-decade highs last week, as investors weighed persistent inflation and debt concerns. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a Bank of England rate hike at its November meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as dollar weakened as investors pared back their bets on US interest rate hikes following a soft US jobs report and policymakers' calls for more evidence before further tightening. Bond markets found some respite on Tuesday after France's unpopular budget triggered a French debt rout and fuelled fears of broader stress across the euro zone.Long-dated US Treasury yields also eased after touching fresh 24-year highs on Monday amid a persistent selloff since late August on inflation and debt concerns. The 10-year yield fell 3 bps to 5.2815%, while the 30-year yield dropped 2.8 bps to 5.6356%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6991(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7063(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6937 (Oct 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(23.6% fib)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.The Japan-U.S. government bond yield differential remains elevated despite easing from recent highs. The still-wide spread continues to favour the U.S. dollar over the yen, providing support to USD/JPY and keeping the pair near the upper end of its recent trading range.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that it was becoming increasingly important to keep underlying inflation anchored around the central bank’s 2% target, signalling that the BOJ remains prepared to raise interest rates further if needed to contain the risk of persistent inflation.He also warned of the risk of underlying inflation overshooting the BOJ's target due to price pressures from the US-Israeli war on Iran, strong AI-related demand and the weak yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to near one-week highs on Tuesday, supported by gains in healthcare stocks after upbeat drug-trial results from Genmab, while euro zone bond yields eased after a recent rally driven by fiscal and inflation concerns.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month offset pressure from a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,168.89 per ounce by 1139 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery added 1% to $4,196.90.
Oil prices fell by more than $2 on Tuesday as rising Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, although persistent security risks in the region limited further losses.
Brent crude futures were down $2.77, or 2.8%, at $97.55 a barrel at 1302 GMT, earlier falling $3, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.15, or 2.4%, to $87.28.
