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Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (Sep) 0.3%, 0.5% previous
• New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (Sep) 0.6%, -0.4% previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Sep) 51.3, 51.6 forecast, 52.5 previous
• Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep) 52.30, 52.50 forecast, 53.50 previous
• Japan Household Confidence (Sep) 35.4, 35.3 forecast, 35.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 51.7 forecast, 52.5 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 51.7 forecast, 52.5 previous
•08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) 4.5 forecast, 5.1 forecast
•09:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% previous
•09:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slid to a 17-month low against the dollar on Monday as concerns about France's ability to rein in its budget deficit and a sharp bond market sell-off last week stirred fears of a return of sovereign debt crisis dynamics in the euro zone.French government bonds have come under pressure as expectations of higher policy rates and rising political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election cast doubt on the ability of the euro area's second-largest economy to put its public finances on a more sustainable footing.The euro sank to as low as $1.1161 in Asian hours, its weakest since May 2025, and was last down 0.62% at $1.1118. The single currency recorded on Friday its fourth straight weekly fall against the dollar, its steepest in around four months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1261(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1289(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1171(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Monday as the U.S. currency strengthened, supported by elevated Treasury yields despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.U.S. data released last week showed employment growth slowed more than expected in September, while payroll gains for the previous two months were revised sharply lower. The figures have led investors to largely rule out another Fed rate increase this month.Trading was subdued in Asia due to holidays in China, South Korea and Australia's New South Wales, while regional equity markets took direction from Wall Street's moves on Friday. Sterling slipped 0.23% to $1.3207. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3215(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3299(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on the currency. Weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth in September, along with sharp downward revisions to payroll gains in the previous two months, reinforced expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates this month.However, persistently above-target U.S. inflation remains a key factor supporting a relatively restrictive Fed stance. Sticky price pressures could leave the door open to further rate increases in the coming months. With U.S. yields near multi-year highs, the yield advantage remains firmly in favor of the dollar.Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor escalating Middle East tensions and the inflationary risks from higher oil prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7027(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6912 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6898(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged lower against yen on Monday as markets assessed comments from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi pledged to keep government bond issuance under control and respond swiftly to excessive market volatility, seeking to reassure investors as concerns over Japan’s deteriorating fiscal position push Japanese government bond yields higher.She said the government would maintain fiscal sustainability while increasing spending to strengthen growth potential, including by reviewing existing tax breaks and subsidies.Her comments underscore growing concerns in Tokyo over rising JGB yields, which are increasing borrowing costs and could make it more expensive to fund the government’s ambitious spending plans.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities advanced strongly on Monday as markets reduced bets on a Fed rate increase this month
China A50 was up by 0.36% , Hang Seng was down at 0.20%, Nikkei was up at 2.45%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices drifted higher on Monday after recent soft economic data sharply lowered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, though a firmer dollar limited gains.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,153.56 per ounce by 0631 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $4,181.70.
Oil prices fell on Monday as rising Middle East crude exports and a release of oil stocks by the Group of Seven nations boosted supplies, offsetting concerns about further damage to Gulf oil infrastructure as the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on.
Brent crude futures fell 72 cents, or 0.71%, to $101.59 a barrel at 0634 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.05 a barrel, down $1.05, or 1.2%.
