Market Roundup
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov): 15.2%, 1.9% forecast, -6.1% previous
•Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Nov): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Dec): 51.6, 52.5 forecast, 53.2 previous
•Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Nov): 20.20%, -1.10% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (MoM) (Nov): 1.3%, -1.3% previous
•Australia Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) (Nov): 0.3%, 0.4% previous
•Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Nov): 3.4%, 3.4% previous
•Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Nov): 3.2%, 3.3% previous
•Australia CPI Index Number (Nov): 100.01, 99.99 previous
•Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Nov): 3.40%, 3.60% forecast, 3.80% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec): 45.4 previous
•08:30 France HCOB Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec): 43.6 previous
•08:30 Germany HCOB Construction PMI (Dec): 45.2 previous
•08:30 Italy HCOB Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec): 48.2 previous
•08:30 Germany Unemployment Rate (Dec): 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment Change (Dec): 5K forecast, 1K previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment (Dec): 2.973M previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Dec): 2.885M previous
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.0%forecast, 2.1% previous
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Dec): -0.3% previous
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Dec): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•10:00 Eurozone CPI n.s.a. (Dec): 129.33 previous
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Dec): -0.5% previous
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Dec): -0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded flat against dollar on Wednesday ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's rate outlook, a factor traders consider more consequential for currencies than ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors expect at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, while they look to U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday for more clues. The JOLTS survey and ADP private payrolls data on Wednesday may also set the market tone.Meanwhile,markets have thus far largely brushed off deepening geopolitical fractures around the world, with stocks rallying and currencies and bonds little budged following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed on Wednesday as traders were in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a batch of U.S. labour market data, with figures on private payrolls and job openings due later in the day, before Friday's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report comes due. Investors have struggled to get an accurate read of the world's largest economy following a record U.S. government shutdown last year which hampered the collection and release of key economic data.However, they remain convinced that the Fed will cut rates two more times this year that has weighed on the dollar, though growing divisions within the Fed and U.S. President Donald Trump's imminent pick for the next Fed Chair have further complicated the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3577(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3620(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3459 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3426(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose to hit 15-month high on Wednesday as hawkish RBA expectation offset Australia’s softer-than-expected CPI release.The RBA cut interest rates three times last year to 3.6% but has warned that the next move could be up given the pick-up in inflation.Investors see a roughly 39% chance that the RBA could raise rates as soon as February, with focus on Wednesday’s inflation data.Australian consumer prices increased less than expected in November, according to Wednesday’s data, but persistent core inflation suggests that markets still see a chance of an interest rate hike as soon as next month.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the monthly consumer price index (CPI) remained flat in November, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.8%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen as cautious market sentiment sustained safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency. Concerns over Japan’s public finances remain, particularly after the cabinet approved Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s record ¥122.3 trillion budget.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank would continue tightening policy if economic growth and inflation evolve as expected. Meanwhile, a private survey showed Japan’s service sector growth slowed in December to its weakest pace since May, as softer demand offset a pickup in export orders.The final S&P Global Japan Services PMI fell to 51.6 in December from 53.2 previously, below the flash estimate of 52.5, but remained above the 50.0 threshold for a ninth consecutive month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.55(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.19 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.03 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks retreated on Wednesday as markets grappled with the ramifications of the political upheaval in Venezuela and the fate of its petroleum reserves.
China’s A50 down 0.55%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.99% ,Hang Sang was down at 1.10%
Commodities Recap
Gold slid on Wednesday as investors booked profits after prices briefly hit a more than one-week high earlier in the session, while a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment across the precious metals complex ahead of key U.S. jobs data due this week.
Spot gold slipped 1.1% to $4,447.03 per ounce, as of 0547 GMT. It touched a record high of $4,549.71 last Monday.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery were 0.9% lower at $4,456.10.
Oil prices slid as investors weighed the consequences of Venezuela’s political upheaval and the outlook for its petroleum assets.
U.S. crude fell 1.66% to $56.18 a barrel and Brent slumped to $59.94 per barrel, down 1.25% on the day.
