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Market Roundup
• Swedish Industrial New Orders (Aug) 5.1%, 7.7% previous
•Swedish Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 5.4%, -2.9% previous
•Swedish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 5.8%, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:00 Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 0.0% previous
•08:00 Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
•08:00 Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) -1.2% previous
•08:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Sep) 3.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro was headed for a fifth straight weekly drop on Friday, though there were signs the selling streak was losing momentum as France's tumbling debt market stabilised and a decline in US yields took some steam out of the dollar's rally.The common currency had hit a 17-month low of $1.1161 on Monday on market worries about France's record high debt load and the difficult political path to budget cuts, in contrast with a robust-looking US dollar and US economy.France's far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen presented plans this week to cut the budget deficit, which markets took as reassuring given hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon has asked the central bank to cancel government debts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday as investors remained cautious amid persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook.Last month, the U.S. central bank unanimously voted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said further monetary tightening would be necessary to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, although he declined to offer guidance on the policy decision expected at this month's meeting.According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 17% probability of another rate hike in October, while the likelihood of an increase in December stands at 83%.Meanwhile, oil prices declined as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased somewhat. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the November midterm congressional elections, citing productive discussions aimed at ending the conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained some traction on Friday as a temporary easing in global bond-market anxiety improved risk sentiment, prompting traders to reassess their positions in the Australian dollar.The Reserve Bank of Australia's September monetary policy meeting minutes, due on Tuesday, will be closely scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' assessment of inflationary pressures, economic growth and the outlook for interest rates.Investors will also focus on September employment data next week for further guidance on the outlook, following an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a five-year high of 4.6% in August.On the Geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out fresh attacks on Iran ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, easing some immediate concerns about a further escalation in Middle East tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6991(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7063(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6937 (Oct 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(23.6% fib)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday as the Japanese yen weakened following data showing that household spending contracted for a ninth consecutive month in August.Japanese household spending declined for the ninth consecutive month in August, although the pace of contraction was slower than market expectations, government data showed on Friday.Japanese consumer spending fell 3.1% year-on-year in August, according to data from the Internal Affairs Ministry, easing less than the market-expected decline of 3.6%.On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, household spending edged up 0.1%, falling short of market expectations for a 0.5% increase.The indicator will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise as it decides whether to raise interest rates in coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.53(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.14(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks were poised on Friday for a second straight weekly drop, as investors fretted about higher energy prices, bond market ructions and the huge sums needed to fund AI investment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.15% , Hang Seng was up at 1.35%, China A50 was up at 0.36 %
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 1% on Friday, helped by a softer US dollar and lower oil prices, while market players weighed lingering inflation concerns and the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,190.57 per ounce by 0630 GMT after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday. Prices headed for a weekly gain.US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.4% to $4,215.30.
Oil prices fell on Friday as Middle East supply concerns eased after US President Donald Trump said it will not attack Iran before US elections next month amid productive talks to end their war that has disrupted global energy markets.
Brent crude futures fell $1.37, or 1.3%, to $102.91 a barrel by 0450 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.09, or 1.2%, to $90.40.
