Europe Roundup: Euro hit 17 month low against dollar, European shares fall, Gold firms, Oil prices rises-Oct 1st,2026

Market Roundup

 • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.4, 50.1 forecast, 49.6 previous

• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.6, 50.3 forecast, 51.1 previous

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 53.9, 53.8 forecast, 54.3 previous

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 54.0, 54.4 previous

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 52.9, 52.7 forecast, 52.7 previous

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.9, 52.0 forecast, 51.7 previous

•US Initial Jobless Claims 197K, 201K forecast, 198K previous

•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,701K, 1,730K forecast, 1,712K previous

•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 200.00K, 202.50K previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

 • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 54.8, 54.6 previous

 • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) 51.2 previous

 • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep) 72.9, 71.1 previous

 • 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) 0.0%, -0.5% previous

 • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep) 53.7 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•  No Event Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro hit its lowest point in 17 months on Thursday, as investors battered European assets in light of the impact ‌on the regional economy from higher oil prices and inflation, while mounting political uncertainty added to an uncertain backdrop. In other data, factory growth in the euro zone continued ​its upward march in September, hitting its fastest rate in more than four ​years, S&P ⁠Global's survey showed. Oil prices held firm on the day as recovering Gulf crude exports and a surprise rise in US inventories eased supply concerns. Meanwhile, euro zone unemployment stood at 6.4% in August, in line with economists' expectations ⁠in ​a Reuters poll. The ⁠euro was last down 0.35% at $1.1291. It declined nearly 2.5% in September, its largest monthly decline since July 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1302(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1271(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The pound fell to a three-month low against the dollar on Thursday as renewed concerns over elevated interest rates, oil prices and persistent inflation weighed on pound. Investors were increasingly worried that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep oil prices above $100 a barrel, fueling inflation and forcing borrowing costs higher. Energy-importing economies with already stretched public finances came under particular pressure .Sterling fell by as much as 0.5% on the day to a low of $1.3193, breaking the $1.32 mark for the first time since late June. It was last down 0.3% at $1.3225.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Sep 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian traded flat on Thursday as   investors digested weaker-than-expected Australian trade data.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the balance on goods recorded a surplus of A$495 million ($343.73 million) in August, down from a revised A$1.4 billion in July. That was well below forecasts of a A$2.0 billion surplus.Exports rose 3.7%, with non-monetary gold up 20%. Overall imports jumped 5.8%, led by a 79% rise in ADP equipment used in data centers, and a rise in aircraft shipments.Meanwhile, the failure to restore an interim ceasefire between Iran and its counterparts kept geopolitical risks elevated, with WTI crude around $89.18 a barrel. The US dollar index remained broadly flat. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6975 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7055(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6931 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.68743(23.6%fib)

USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar  rebounded on Thursday   as dollar was  benefited by elevated US-Japan yield differentials.The yield differential between Japanese government bonds and US Treasuries also remains near recent extremes, maintaining a supportive backdrop for USD/JPY. In other data, factory growth in the euro zone continued ​its upward march in September, hitting its fastest rate in more than four ​years, S&P ⁠Global's survey showed.Oil prices held firm on the day as recovering Gulf crude exports and a surprise rise in US inventories eased supply concerns.Meanwhile, euro zone unemployment stood at 6.4% in August, in line with economists' expectations ⁠in ​a Reuters poll.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares dipped    on Thursday as investors turned cautious, while global government bond yields climbed to multi-year highs.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by1.40 percent, Germany's Dax was down  1.42percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.41 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Thursday as softer-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, while investors awaited key US jobs data due later this week.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,181.02 per ounce by 08:56 a.m. ​EDT (1256 GMT), while US gold futures for December delivery were up 0.6% at $4,211.20. Gold prices ​fell over 6% in September.

Brent crude prices rose around 2% on Thursday after China suspended oil product exports, potentially tightening fuel markets already facing global supply shortages, while investors continued to monitor diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was up ​37 cents, or 0.4%, to $90.79 a barrel, having traded close to $93 earlier in the session.