Market Roundup
•Australia CPI (YoY) (Q3) 2.8%, 2.3% forecast, 3.8% previous.
• Australia CPI Index Number (Q3) 139.10, 138.80 previous.
• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q3) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.9% previous.
• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.10%, 2.40% forecast, 2.70% previous.
• Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Q3) 3.8%, 3.6% forecast, 4.2% previous.
• Australia Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:55 German Unemployment Change (Oct) 15K forecast, 17K previous
•08:55 German Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.1% forecast, 6.0% previous.
•08:55 German Unemployment (Oct) 2.823M previous.
•08:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Oct) 2.806M previous.
•09:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•09:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.7% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•09:00 German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% previous.
•09:00 German CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.4% previous.
•09:00 German CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.9% previous.
• 09:00 German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% previous.
• 09:00 German CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.4% previous.
• 09:00 German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% previous.
•09:00 German GDP (YoY) (Q3) -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•09:00 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 09:00 German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Oct) -0.76
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Oct) -12.5
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Oct) 10.9
• 10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Oct) 6.2
• 10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Oct) 6.6 forecast, 6.7 previous
• 10:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Oct) -10.5 forecast, -10.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 UK Autumn Forecast Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Wednesday ahead of the release of readings on gross domestic product across Europe later in the day, that could shed light on whether the European Central Bank will opt to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its next meeting in December . Wednesday's advance third-quarter growth figures in the United States are likely to show that the world's largest economy maintained a solid pace of growth, as subsiding inflation and strong wage gains powered consumer spending. The euro is headed for a fall of nearly 3% against the dollar in October, its worst monthly decline since May 2023.Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound remained steady on Wednesday as traders awaited the UK budget details set to be announced later in the day. Rachel Reeves will present the new Labour government's first budget in 14 years, following the turmoil caused by Liz Truss's tax-cutting plans two years ago. Reeves aims for around £40 billion ($52 billion) in fiscal measures, primarily through tax increases and cuts to some public services, to meet her commitment of covering daily expenses without borrowing. Markets anticipate at least one more rate hike this year, but the Bank of England is expected to be slower than other major central banks in lowering borrowing costs, providing some support for the pound this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2978(5 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3028(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2922(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar slipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors digested Australian inflation figures. Australian data showed consumer prices rose 0.2% in the third quarter, a little lower than expected, bringing annual inflation down to a 3-1/2-year low of 2.8% and back in RBA’s2%-3% target band. Headline inflation fell due to government cost-of-living subsidies and lower petrol prices, though services inflation remains stubbornly high. The Aussie AUD=D3 slipped 0.1% to hit $0.6578, the lowest level since mid-August, after falling 0.3% overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6632 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6678 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5681 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5551(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hovered near three-month highs against the yen on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the latest Bank of Japan policy decision. The Bank of Japan Policy Board is likely to signal a hold at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. Yet many in Tokyo still see the BOJ raising rates again before year-end, and the market will be looking for signals of future moves in the BOJ's outlook and press conference. The consensus is for no change in policy at the current meeting. Given summer weaknesses in exports and household spending, and recent changes in Japan's political scenario, the central bank will not want to alter policy at this time. The dollar was last up 0.12% on the day at 153.47 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asia shares eased on Wednesday on the back of weakness in China, as investors brace for a tightly contested U.S. election that could have huge ramifications for the world's second-largest economy, even as Beijing tries to shore up growth.
Nikkei 225 was up by 1.66%, South Korean KOSPI was down by 0.92%, while Hang Seng was down by 1.49%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held at one-month lows, after sliding in the previous two sessions, as markets weighed a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and rising OPEC+ crude supplies against a possible drop in U.S. fuel stocks and demand concerns.
Brent crude futures gained 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.7 a barrel by 0701 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $67.83 per barrel.
Gold hit an all-time peak on Wednesday as investors flocked towards the safe-haven metal with less than a week left for the U.S. presidential election, while they also awaited economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate stance.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,783.72 per ounce, as of 0545 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,783.96 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,795.60.
