Market Roundup
•Australia Trade Balance (Nov) 2.936B, 5.140B forecast, 4.353B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Nov) -2.9%, 2.8% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Nov)0.2%,2.4% previous
•Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 3.447%,3.427% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)-0.9% forecast,1.5% previous
•10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.4% forecast, 6.4% previous.
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Nov): -1.9% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec): 23.1 previous.
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Dec): -0.66 previous.
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Dec): 9.9 previous.
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Dec): 97.0 forecast, 97.0 previous.
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Dec): -9.0 forecast, -9.3 previous.
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Dec): 5.9 forecast, 5.7 previous.
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Dec): -14.6 forecast, -14.2 previous.
10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Thursday as investors positioned for a key U.S. jobs report later this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and U.S. pressure on Venezuela. U.S. job openings fell to a 14‑month low in November and hiring remained sluggish, pointing to softer labour demand ahead of Friday’s non‑farm payrolls release. Meanwhile, German industrial orders unexpectedly rose in November, driven by large‑scale contracts, with orders up 5.6% from the previous month versus a Reuters poll that had forecast a 1% decline.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1716(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1656(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1638(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Thursday as investors digested a slate of data that gave mixed signals about the health of the U.S. economy while they await a crucial jobs report on Friday. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labour market appeared stuck in a "no hire, no fire" state, with job openings falling more than expected in November while hiring eased.However, services sector activity unexpectedly picked up in December, suggesting the economy ended 2025 on a solid footing. The spotlight will now be on the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, although a divided central bank indicated in December just one more cut for 2026. Markets broadly expect the Fed to stand pat on rates in January.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3485(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3446(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3376(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as investors continued to assess the prospect of a February interest rate hike after mixed inflation data. Data released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose 3.4% in November from a year earlier, slower than October's alarmingly high 3.8%, but a key measure of core inflation increased to 3.2% for the year, staying stubbornly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2% to 3%.The RBA has already warned it could raise its cash rate if inflation doesn't cool sufficiently, and markets imply a 31% chance that the central would hike by a quarter point at its meeting on February 3.All eyes will be now on the quarterly inflation data, due later this month, which will likely carry more weight in the RBA's upcoming policy decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.66590(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen but downside was limited as traders remained reluctant to place major bets before the release of economic reports. Markets largely shrugged off global geopolitical tensions this week, with currencies remaining mostly stable despite U.S. action in Venezuela and rising China–Japan frictions.The Bank of Japan said on Thursday regional economies are gradually recovering, with many firms seeing the need to keep raising wages, reinforcing optimism that could support further interest rate hikes.The central bank said all nine regions were either picking up or gradually recovering, keeping its economic assessment unchanged from three months ago.The BOJ will factor regional branch input into its growth and inflation review at the January 22–23 meeting, with many analysts expecting rates to remain unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.28 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.22 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities slipped for a second day as momentum from a record-breaking rally waned.
China’s A50 down 1.91%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.59% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 0.03%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors assessed the implications of deepening geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. labour market data.
Oil prices have slid this week on the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude output, though they recovered on Thursday, with U.S. crude rising 0.54% to $56.29 a barrel, while Brent crude futures advanced 0.55% to $60.29 per barrel
Gold fell on Thursday, pressured by a firm dollar as investors positioned for a key U.S. jobs report later this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook .
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,423.20 per ounce, as of 0539 GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 0.7% to $4,432.0.
