Market Roundup
•Finnish Consumer Confidence (Oct) -6.8,-8.1 previous
•Finnish Industrial Confidence (Oct) -12, -12 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:00 Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct) -9 forecast, 4 previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Monday as strong U.S. economic data tempered Federal Reserve rate cut wagers, and bets of Donald Trump winning the presidency buoyed the greenback. The dollar was headed for its sharpest monthly rise in around 2-1/2 years on the back of rising U.S. yields. Solid economic data leading to prospects of the Fed not cutting as far and big as investors had earlier anticipated has diminished the yield appeal of some emerging market currencies. Markets now price almost no chance of a 50-basis point cut by the Fed at its November meeting, down from a nearly 50% chance priced in a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Monday as dollar was underpinned by signs of strength in the U.S. economy and rising bets that Donald Trump would win a second term as president. Dollar was on course for its largest monthly rise in 2-1/2 years as signs of strength in the U.S. economy and the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency have driven U.S. yields sharply higher. While markets have started pricing in a second Trump administration in recent weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump nationally by a marginal 46% to 43%, a recent poll showed. Third-quarter employment data from the U.S. on Oct. 31 remains on top of investors' watch list for the week . Markets price a 95% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut at its November meeting. Odds for a bigger half-point cut were at 50% a month ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3018(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3083(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2925(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar drifted near multi-month lows against dollar on Monday adding to their monthly losses of more than 4% as dollar marched higher on bets of a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election and of a more restrained Federal Reserve in delivering upcoming rate cuts. Looking Ahead,Australia's main release is September and Q3 CPI data on Wednesday, which will reveal whether inflation pressures are finally abating .Retail sales, housing finance and PPI data are also due. New Zealand has Q3 employment and the ANZ business survey. The Aussie slipped 0.1% against the U.S. dollar on Monday to $0.6596, the lowest since mid-August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6632 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6678 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5681 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5551(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit fresh three month high against the yen on Monday after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing in Sunday's election, raising uncertainty over the path for policy and the economy.Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The LDP previously held 247 seats and Komeito held 32.The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability.The yen accelerated declines throughout the morning session, slumping as far as 153.885 per dollar for the first time since July 31. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Japanese stocks rose on Monday as the yen careened toa three-month low after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing in Sunday's election.
The Nikkei share average N225 ended the day up 1.82% to 38,605.53 after rising by as much as 2.2%. It opened 0.4% lower.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as the U.S. dollar held firm, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,735.47 per ounce, as of 0527 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday of last week.U.S. gold futures declined 0.3% to $2,747.70.
Brent crude futures fell 5%, trading as cheaply as $71.99 a barrel after Israel's response to an Iranian missile attack focused, so far, on missile factories and other sites near Tehran and not on disrupting energy supplies.
