Market Roundup
• China GDP (YoY) (Q4): 4.5%, 4.5% forecast, 4.8% previous.
•China GDP (YoY) (Q4): 4.5%, 4.5% forecast, 4.8% previous.
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec): -3.8%, -3.1% forecast, -2.6% previous.
•China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Dec): 5.9%, no forecast, 6.0% previous.
•China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec): 5.2%, 5.1% forecast, 4.8% previous.
•China Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.1%, 5.2% forecast, 5.1% previous.
•China GDP YTD (YoY) (Q4): 5.0%, 5.2% previous.
•China GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 1.2%, 1.0% forecast, 1.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Dec): 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Dec): -0.3% forecast, no previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Dec): 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Dec): 2.1%, previous.
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Monday as dollar weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap extra tariffs on eight European nations until the U.S. was allowed to buy Greenland. Trump said he would impose additional 10% import levies from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, rising to 25% on June 1 if no deal was reached.Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail, and France proposed responding with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.The EU's options include a package of its own tariffs on 93 billion euros ($108 billion) of U.S. imports that was suspended for six months in early August, and measures under an Anti-Coercion Instrument that could hit U.S. services trade or investments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1649(Jan 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1689(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1559(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1496(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Monday as dollar weakened as Trump’s latest Europe tariff threats over Greenland drove investors away from greenback. On Saturday, Trump vowed to implement a wave of increasing tariffs on European allies until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland, escalating a row over the future of Denmark's vast Arctic island.European Union ambassadors are preparing retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead, EU diplomats said. As the trading day got underway dollar came under pressure as investors assessed the longer-term implications of Trump's latest move on the greenback.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3331(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as the dollar slipped amid investor concerns over President Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe. The dollar weakened after President Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the UK. The Australian dollar was also supported by rising expectations of higher interest rates from the RBA.On the data front, Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 1% m/m in December 2025, the fastest pace since December 2023, accelerating sharply from 0.3% in the prior two months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6729(Jan 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6758(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6690(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6672(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered some ground as geopolitical tensions over greenland kept investors cautions .President Trump announced fresh tariffs on eight European countries, imposing an initial 10% levy with plans to raise it to 25% from June 1, reigniting concerns over transatlantic trade relations.The European Union confirmed that previously suspended retaliatory tariffs will be reinstated from February 6, signaling a firmer trade response stance, although EU diplomats indicated there are currently no plans to introduce countermeasures specifically tied to the Greenland issue. Data on Japanese machinery orders in November showed an 11% month-on-month decline, more than double what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and, while no rate hike is expected this time, policymakers could flag a tightening as soon as April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 157.11 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Monday after President Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries linked to the U.S. push to buy Greenland.
Hang seng down 1.13%, Hang Seng was down by 1.04% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down at 0.61%
Commodities Recap
Gold and silver hit fresh highs on Monday as safe-haven demand surged after Trump threatened new tariffs on European countries over Greenland.
Spot gold jumped 1.6% to $4,666.11 as of 0551 GMT, after scaling an all-time high of $4,689.39.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery advanced 1.7% to $4,671.90 per ounce.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, extending the previous session’s gains as Iran’s crackdown on protests reduced unrest and eased fears of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies.
Brent crude was trading at $64.19 a barrel by 0327 GMT, up 6 cents or 0.09%.U.S. West Texas Intermediate for February rose 9 cents, or 0.15%, to $59.53 a barrel. That contract expires on Tuesday and the more active March contract was at $59.39, up 5 cents, or 0.08%.
