Market Roundup
•Japan Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.0, 49.9 forecast, 49.7 previous
• Japan Services PMI (Oct) 49.3, , 53.1 previous
•Finnish PPI (YoY) (Sep) -2.3%, -2.3% previous
•French Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 44.5, 44.9 forecast, 44.6 previous
•French S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 47.3, 49.0 forecast, 48.6 previous
•French Services PMI (Oct) 48.3, 49.8 forecast, 49.6 previous
•German Composite PMI (Oct) 48.4, 47.6 forecast, 47.5 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 42.6, 40.7 forecast, 40.6 previous
•German Services PMI (Oct) 51.4, 50.6 forecast, 50.6 previous
•French Business Survey (Oct) 92, 98 forecast, 99 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 UK Composite PMI (Oct) 52.6 forecast, 52.6 previous
•08:30 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 51.5 forecast, 51.5 previous
•08:30 UK Services PMI (Oct) 52.3 forecast, 52.4 previous
•10:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct) -28 forecast, -35 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as investors digested ECB President Christine Lagarde comments on policy outlook. On Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde took a more measured stance, saying policymakers need to be "cautious" in deciding policy, although colleague Mario Centeno suggested rates could be cut by 50 basis points at the monetary authority's next meeting on Dec. 12. Traders have ramped up bets on faster and potentially bigger rate cuts from the European Central Bank after a host of policymakers warned about the risk of undershooting the central bank's 2% inflation target a remarkable change in tone after a two-year campaign to rein in prices. The euro slumped to a nearly four-month trough of $1.07612 overnight, and last changed hands at $1.079075 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling recovered some ground against the dollar on Thursday as uncertainty over the U.S. election outcome kept investors on edge. The combination of higher U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. election uncertainty and growing bets the Federal Reserve may be more restrained in their easing pace capped risk sentiment. Adding to the market nerves is rising expectations of a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.Sterling was steady at $1.2966, after dipping to a more than five-week low of $1.29080 in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2912(Oct 23rd low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2901 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar traded near 0.6000 level on Thursday as dollar remained firm as traders tempered U.S. rate cut expectation and considered the possibility of a second Trump presidency.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr said on Thursday that low and stable inflation is now back in sight in New Zealand, with the central bank keeping an eye on firms' pricing intentions.This bolstered expectations for a significant rate cut in November, with swaps pricing in a 28% chance of a 75 basis point move, while a half-point cut is fully expected. The kiwi dollar recovered 0.2% to $0.6014, after declining 0.6% overnight to a fresh two-month low of $0.5993Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased from three month high against the yen on Thursday after Japan's finance minister said officials are watching exchange-rate moves with heightened vigilance.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said overnight it was "still taking time" to sustainably achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target, and signaled that rate hikes would be done cautiously and gradually . But he also warned of the cost of moving too slowly, which could encourage speculators to push the yen lower.The central bank's next policy decision is on Oct. 31, and it is widely expected to stand pat this time. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.12 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.23(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian shares tracked Wall Street lower on Thursday as uncertainty over the U.S. election outcome kept investors on edge.
The Nikkei N225 closed 0.8% lower at 38,104.86. South Korean KOSPI was down by -0.28%,was down by -1.28%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed by around 1% on Thursday, reversing some of previous session's losses, as Middle East tensions kept the market on edge ahead of the U.S. presidential election amid expectations of strong distillates demand in fourth quarter.
Brent crude futures rose 77 cents, or 1%, to $75.73 a barrel by 0655 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 82 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.59.
Gold prices drifted higher on Thursday, propped up by safe-haven demand, while palladium hit a more than one-month peak after a media report sparked fears about sanctions on Russian supplies.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,729.71 per ounce by 0621 GMT, slightly below the record high of $2,758.37 hit on Wednesday as U.S. election jitters and Middle East tensions boosted demand.
