Market Roundup
• Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Apr)-11.3%,-10.5% forecast,-11.6% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Mar)-1.841B,4.250B forecast,5.026B previous
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Mar)-2.7%,4.2% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Mar)14.1% ,-2.7% previous
•French Exports (Mar)52.5B, 52.0B previous
•French Trade Balance (Mar)-6.9B,-6.7B forecast,-5.5B previous
•French Current Account (Mar)-8.20B ,-1.50B previous
•French Imports (Mar)59.3B,57.5B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Apr) 45.8 forecast,45.6 previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.0% forecast,1.7% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)-0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
ooking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Thursday as hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran-U.S. war supported oil-exposed currencies . Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that sources indicated would formally end the war but leave unresolved key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson cited by Iran's ISNA news agency said Tehran would convey its response. Trump said he believed Iran wanted an agreement. The pullback in oil had boosted the euro, given the continent is far more reliant on imported oil than the United States, and it was 0.1% firmer at $1.1757 having touched a two-week top of $1.1797 overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Wednesday as investors weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace deal succeeding. Iran said it was reviewing a peace proposal that sources said would formally end the war while leaving unresolved the key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has sent oil prices surging. Federal Reserve officials said the war is raising the risk of a sustained inflation shock, with continued high oil prices and developing concerns about problems with global supply chains. Investors were awaiting the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with U.S. jobs seen increasing by 62,000 in April after rebounding 178,000 in March, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3658(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3701(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3571(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3532(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar steadied near four-year high on Thursday as hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict supported risk sensitive Australian dollar.Iran said it was reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that could formally end the Gulf war, though key issues including Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.The improvement in global risk sentiment helped offset March data showing Australia's first goods trade deficit since 2017 as a boom in data centres sucked in imports of processing equipment. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the trade balance swung wildly to a deficit of A$1.8 billion ($1.30 billion) in March, from a revised surplus of A$5.0 billion in February. That was far below market forecasts for a A$4.1 billion surplus. Markets imply around a 20% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike again in June, having already lifted rates by a total 75 basis points to 4.35% over its last three meetings. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7280(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7297(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7229(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.711(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against yen on Thursday as traders remained cautious following sharp yen volatility in the previous session.The yen recorded its fourth sudden surge in the past week, keeping market participants alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities.Traders continue to closely monitor official comments after Japan’s top currency official stated that the IMF’s classification of the yen as a floating currency does not restrict Tokyo from taking action in the foreign exchange market if needed.Attention was also drawn to the Bank of Japan, where meeting minutes showed that several board members believe additional rate hikes may be necessary if the Iran conflict drags on and fuels inflationary pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.16(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks surged to record highs on Thursday, while the U.S. dollar weakened and oil extended sharp losses as optimism over a Middle East peace deal lifted risk sentiment, though uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persisted.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 5.80 % , Hang Seng was up at 1.55%, China A50 was up at 0.03%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose over $1 on Thursday, rebounding from the previous day's sharp losses, as investors weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace deal succeeding.
Brent crude futures were up 54 cents, or 0.5%, at $101.81 a barrel at 0615 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $95.53 a barrel.
Gold prices rose for a third consecutive session on Thursday, supported by a softer dollar as hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal eased concerns over inflation and prolonged high interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,707.52 per ounce, as of 0615 GMT, after rising about 3% on Wednesday to hit its highest point since April 27. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.5% to $4,716.
