- ECB maintains ELA assistance as is, ups haircut on collateral 10%.
- IMF tells Greece it cannot provide money due to missed payment.
- ECB/Austria CB Nowotny says bridge program for Greece thinkable.
- EU Oettinger - Greece likely to issue IOUs, could pave way to Grexit.
- Japan end-June foreign reserves $1.243 trln, end-May $1.246 trln.
- China Prem Li - Confident and able to deal with risks, challenges.
- RBA leaves OCR at 2.0% as eyed, lower AUD likely, inflation consistent with Target, policy needs to remain accommodative, China-Greece bond impact small.
- Australia consumer confidence off in July 5 week, ANZ/RM index 111.0, -4.6%.
- Australia June HIA PCI -1.4 pts to 46.4, well below 50.
- Fitch affirms New Zealand at AA with positive outlook.
- NZ Q2 biz confidence index net +5%, Q1 +23%, capacity until 93.4% vs 92.3%.
- (0145 ET/0545 GMT) Switzerland June unemployment, 3.3% sa eyed; last 3.3% sa, 3.2% nsa.
- (0200 ET/0600 GMT) Germany May industrial output, +0.1% m/m eyed; last +0.9%.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France May budget balance; last bln deficit.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France May trade balance, E3.6 bln deficit eyed; last E3.0 bln deficit.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway May manufacturing output, unchanged m/m eyed; last -2.9%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May industrial output, -0.2% m/m, +1.6% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +1.2%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May manufacture output, + 0.1% m/m, +1.8% y/y eyed; last -0.4%, + 0.2%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May int'l trade bal, $42.6 bln deficit eyed; last $40.9 bln deficit.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May JOLTS job openings, 5.35 mln eyed; last 5.38 mln.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Euro Group meeting on Greece, EU Summit likely to follow.
- N/A Paris finance conference, various speakers (till tomorrow).
- N/A ESM E1.5 bln 3-month bill auction.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Austria bln max 0.25% and 1.2% 2019 and 2025 RAGB auctions.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) Germany E1 bln 0.1% 2026 index-linked Bund auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) UK DMO bln 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refi at fixed 0.05%, E79 bln allotment eyed, last bln.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Buba Nagel speech in Frankfurt.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.1035 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1057 and low at 1.1024 levels. Pair has struggled once again with the increasing risk of a Grexit, after the Greek referendum ended with the "no" victory. Initial support is seen around 1.0952 and resistance is seen around 1.1218 levels. The greenback lost ground mid American session, as the Markit non-manufacturing PMI showed the slowest rise in the US service sector for five months in June, printing 56.0. Market will closely eye on EU summit and Euro group meeting for the Greece saga. Initial support is seen around at 1.0914 and resistance at 1.1171 levels.
USD/JPY is supported above 122.00 levels and posted a high of 122.79 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.52 and currently trading at 122.63 levels. The pair extends gains for the second straight session as the USD bulls remain supported backed by a rebound in the non-manufacturing sector in the US, while gains remained in check as the safe-haven demand on Greece concerns continue to underpin the Japan currency. Moreover, weakening EUR/USD on the back of Grexit fears continues to boost the upside in the greenback. Later today, markets await Euro group meetings with Greece on the top of the Agenda while a set of US macro data will also be eyed. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 121.48 levels.
GBP/USD is supported below $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5607 and low at 1.5582 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5585 levels. A stronger sterling and weaker exports continue to weigh on the overall performance in factories across the UK in the second quarter. Today UK will release Industrial production as well as manufacturing production data. UK industrial production, including the extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea, is expected to have declined 0.4% between April and May, after raising the same amount a month before. Initial support is seen at 1.5486 and resistance is seen around 1.5737 levels.
USDCHF is supported above 0.9400 levels and trading at 0.9436 levels and made intraday low at 0.9419 and high at 0.9440 levels. Yesterday Switzerland released CPI data with flat numbers as expected at 0.1% vs 0.2% previous release. Pair is trading range bound as market eye on Switzerland's Job data release. Near term support is seen at 0.9341 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9500 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7500 levels and trading at 0.7485 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7500 levels and low at 0.7463 levels. The Aussie remains in negative territory following the RBA's decision to keep the rate unchanged at 2%. The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices," RBA statement said. The Aussie remains further pressured by events surrounding Greece and China, causing global risk aversion which drives risk currencies lower and safe havens higher. Markets sentiment will be driven mainly by this week's economic news from Australia as the labour data report for June is due on Thursday and ongoing Greece story. Initial support is seen at 0.7400 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
