- RBNZ cuts OCR 25 bps to 3.25%, further ease may be appropriate, another OCR cut priced in, inflation low, CPI +0.7% end-'15, +2.1% end-'16, GDP +3.2% as of March '16, +3.1% March '17, NZD weakness good, significant way to go.
- NZ May REINZ median house prices +1.5% m/m, +6.8% y/y.
- Japan MoF survey - Q2 big mfg business sentiment index -6.0, Q1 +2.4, +13.2 eyed in Q3 (previous estimate +7.8), FY'15/16 CAPEX +5.9% (previous estimate -3.9%).
- MoF flow data week-ended June 6 - Japanese sell net Y385.2 bln foreign bonds, buy net Y53.5 bln stocks, Y31.7 bln bills; foreign investors buy Y255.3 bln Japan stocks, Y122.2 bln bonds, sell trln bills, stock volume massive.
- JP Bank to set up assessment management venture with Sumi Trust, Nomura.
- World Bank cuts '15 global growth forecast to 2.8%, Jan 3%, urges Fed to wait.
- Reuters Poll - Over half of Greeks disapprove of govt stance in lender talks.
- Australia May employment +41k, unemployment 6.0%, participation 64.7%, +11k, 6.2% and 64.8% eyed, full-time employment +14.7k.
- Australia June MI inflation expectations index off, weighted mean +2.3%, trimmed mean +3.0%, May +2.4%, +3.6%.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France May HICP - final, +0.2% m/m, +0.3% y/y eyed; flash +0.2%, +0.1%.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden May CPI, +0.2% m/m, -0.1% y/y eyed; last unchanged, -0.2%.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden May CPIF, +0.2% m/m, +0.8% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, +0.7%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US w/e initial jobless claims, 277k eyed; last 276k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May retail sales, +1.1% m/m eyed; last unchanged.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May import/export prices, +0.8%, +0.2% m/m eyed; last -0.3%, -0.7%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Apr business inventories, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.1%.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Sweden inflation-linked government bond auction.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) France Fin Min Sapin press conference in Paris.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Ireland E750 mln 2.4% 2030 IGB auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) Spain E5-6 bln 0.25/1.15/5.4% 2018/20/23 Bono auctions.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Italy E2-2.5/1.5-2/1-1.5 bln 0.25/1.35/1.65/3.25% 2018/22/32/46 BTP sales.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) UK Fiscal Sustainability Report.
- (0630 ET/1030 GMT) UK DMO GBP2 bln 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction.
- (0745 ET/1145 GMT) Buba ChiefEcon Ulbrich speech in Dublin.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) ECB Lautenschlager Dutch parliamentary testimony.
- N/A IEF Americas Conference of Montreal, various speakers (final day).
- N/A OECD tax conference in Washington, DC (final day).
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) BoC financial system review release/15:15 Gov Poloz press conference.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) Buba Dombret speech in Prague/Buba Thiele speech in Garbsen, Germany.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Buba VP Buch speech at Munich symposium.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1303 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1325 and low at 1.1282 levels. Today France CPI and Nonfarm employment data will be main focus for the European session. Initial support is seen around 1.1221 and resistance is seen around 1.1378 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.18 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.56 and currently trading at 123.03 levels. Today in Asian hours Japan released BSI manufacturing Index with negative numbers. Now market will eye on USD retail sales data due later in a day for further momentum. Near term resistance is seen at 123.66 and support is seen at 122.45 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5528 and low at 1.5488 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5496 levels. Sterling rose on Wednesday, trading near two-week highs against the dollar after data showed British industrial output growing faster than expected in April. In the absence of major economic data from UK, market will eye on 30 yr bond auction. Initial support is seen at 1.5440 and resistance is seen around 1.5535 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9328 levels and made intraday low at 0.9297 and high at 0.9335 levels. Today was data free session for Switzerland; market will eye on US retail sales data release due later in a day. Near term support is seen at 0.9242 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9372 levels.
AUD/USD is supported above 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7768 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7791 levels and low at 0.7696 levels. Pair spiked all the way to 0.7790s after a much better-than-expected Australian jobs report. Australia's employment figures came much better-than-expected - around 15 expected -, tripling estimates, with the total employment change at 42k, 27.3k being part-time jobs and 14.7k full-time positions. The jobless rate was also reduced to 6% vs 6.1% prior (revised from 6.2%), while the participation rate was unchanged at 64.7% after a revision last month from 64.8%. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7811 levels.
