Market Roundup
- Major Japan companies' net profits set to top Y20 trln.
- Japan March core machinery orders +2.9% m/m, +2.6% y/y, +1.8% and -7.2% eyed, Q1 core orders +6.3% q/q, Q2 eyed at -7.4%.
- ECB Mersch - Satisfied with effects of QE, no plans to end it early.
- Greek PM warned lenders of not repaying IMF debt in May.
- SNB Zurbruegg - CHF still greatly overvalued against EUR, no need now to up anti-cyclical buffer but ready to act as needed.
- RBA DepGov Lowe - Further AUD fall would be helpful, fine line on rates, eyeing prudent balance, still scope to lower rates.
- NZ announces capital gains tax on housing investment.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0030 ET/0430 GMT) Japan March industrial output (revised), capacity utilization; prelim -0.3% m/m, last -3.2%.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland March retail sales; last -2.7% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden Q1 capacity utilization; last +0.5% q/q.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) IT March trade balance, global/EU; last bln, 690 mln surpluses.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May NAHB housing market index, 57.0 eyed; last 56.0.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Swedbank Global Outlook Seminar, Rikbank Gov Ingves, other attendees (includes ECB Mersch - speech 05:00, Chicago Fed Evans - 06:00).
- N/A Slovakia 1.5% and 3.375% 2018 and 2024 SGB auctions.
- N/A Germany E1.5 bln 12-mo Bubill, Netherlands 1-2 bln/each 3/6-mo DTC sales.
- N/A France E2.6-3/1.2-1.6/1-1.4 bln 3/6/12-month BTF auctions.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Buba Buch speech at Frankfurt conference/ (0815 ET/1215 GMT) Buba Dombret speech.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Belgium E2-2.8 bln 4.25/0.8/5.5% 2021/25/28 OLO auctions.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is well supported below 1.1450 levels and currently trading at 1.1427 levels. New York retracement low is at 1.1419, hourly Ichimoku cloud at 1.1323-96. Ongoing Greek tale despite optimism in some area, USD broadly bid. Bunds yield less of factor, both US-German yields off Friday. Today is very light calendar and Euro will release Italy trade balance data only. 1.1450 is an immediate resistance and if that holds we may see a short dip. Initial support is seen around 1.1324 levels.
USD/JPY pair trades higher at 119.67, having posted a daily high at 119.75 levels and low at 119.34 levels. JPY released Core machinery orders with positive numbers and revised industrial production with negative numbers. On the top side, the next resistance is located at 120.30 (May 1 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.54 (May 5 High) levels. Immediate support might be located at 118.85 levels.
GBP/USD is slipped from 1.5814 levels and trading around 1.5725 levels. Pair made intraday high at 1.5737 and low at 1.5705 levels. Today is data free session for UK. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5845 above which gains could be extended to 1.5900 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.5672.
USD/CHF is trading around 0.9170 levels and made intraday low at 0.9152 and high at 0.9189 levels. Today Switzerland will release retail sales data. SNB board member Zurbruegg says in newspaper interview Swiss Franc still greatly overvalued against the euro. After the statement CHF showed minor appreciation against major peers. Near term support is seen at 0.9070 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9227 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.8050 levels and trading around 0.8016 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.8044 levels and low at 0.8004 levels. Today AUD$ released new motor vehicle sales data with flat numbers. RBA Lowe gave the market a push saying it still had scope to cut interest rates. Initial support is seen at 0.7964 and resistance at 0.8162 levels.
