April industrial production indicates fall in Brazil's Q2 GDP

The sharp decline in Brazil's industrial production (-7.6% yoy) already suggests an overall supply side contraction of -2.7% yoy in April. The economy also likely contracted heavily in April on a sequential basis, implying growth in Q2 will likely be considerably worse than in Q1.

According to Societe Generale's forecast, the economy to contract by -7.9% qoq (annualised rate) in Q2.