USD/JPY nears 162.00 as Japan holds back on FX intervention 
Market Roundup
• Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun): 3.1%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
• EU HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (Jun): 42.8, 43.7 previous.
• France HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 38.2, 39.6 previous.
• Germany HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 44.8, 42.4 previous.
• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 45.4, 49.4 previous.
• UK New Passenger Cars Registration (Jun): 213,166, 160,662 previous.
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun): 38.4, 40.1 forecast, 38.2 previous.
• EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul): -3.1, -14.5 forecast, -13.4 previous.
• EU PPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• EU PPI (YoY) (May): 5.9%, 5.7% forecast, 5.0% previous.
• EU Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• EU Retail Sales (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
• UK Car Registration (YoY) (Jun): 11.4%, 7.1% previous.
• France 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.548%, 2.579% previous.
•France 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.374%, 2.377% previous.
•France 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.455%, 2.483% previous.
•US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 51.2, 51.3 forecast, 51.3 previous.
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 51.9, 52.2 forecast, 51.5 previous.
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 54.0, 54.2 forecast, 54.5 previous.
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun): 67.7, 67.5 forecast, 71.3 previous.
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun): 51.2, 48.2 forecast, 47.9 previous.
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Jun): 55.1, 56.8 forecast, 57.3 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.740% previous.
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.840% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Monday as dollar recovered after last week's soft jobs report lessened the odds of an imminent interest rate hike.The dollar found its feet after having posted its worst weekly performance since April last week, weighed down by a U.S. payrolls report that showed job growth slowed sharply in June, which, together with the weaker oil price, has curbed market expectations for a rate increase this month.Investor are now looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting on Wednesday for clues about the rate outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Monday as the dollar recovered some strength following a selloff last week after soft U.S. jobs data.The dollar fell broadly last week after the monthly U.S. employment report showed far fewer workers were added to payrolls than expected in June, and also in May and April, prompting investors to wind down bets that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as soon as this month.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said last week the central bank was not in a position to consider cutting interest rates.A BoE survey on Friday showed UK companies expected their prices to rise 4.1% in the year ahead in the three months to June, up from 4.0% in May and the highest since early 2024, suggesting the energy price shock had yet to release its grip on corporate pricing plans.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3389(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar dipped against dollar on Monday as Australian dollar weakened following TD-MI Inflation Gauge data.Australia's TD-MI Inflation Gauge, which tracks monthly changes in consumer prices, showed inflation eased in the latest reporting period. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its next monetary policy meeting early next month, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge among the key data releases likely to influence the board's decision.Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to deliver a speech in Canberra on Wednesday, with investors watching for fresh signals on the central bank's policy outlook.Markets are wagering the RBA is mostly done hiking after three rate rises this year to 4.35%, with just 10 basis points of tightening priced in for the rest of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6986(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6882(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6822(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose higher against yen on Monday as the pair was supported by renewed dip-buying interest despite a broadly softer U.S. dollar backdrop authorities stand ready to intervene at any time to support the currency.The absence of intervention from Japanese authorities has emboldened speculative investors to push the pair higher, although caution remains elevated as traders remain alert to the possibility of official action if yen weakness accelerates.The Bank of Japan's gradual approach to policy normalization, coupled with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook, continues to outweigh fears of currency intervention, helping to underpin USD/JPY.Japan's latest government policy blueprint called for sizeable fiscal spending measures and encouraged the BOJ to support domestic demand, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy normalization will remain slow and clouding the outlook for future rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 hovered near record highs on Monday after last week's strong gains, as investors focused on fresh deal activity, including a take-private bid for UK airline easyJet.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.33 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil traded steady on Monday around levels seen before the Iran conflict, as Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling prices and OPEC+ approved another production increase for August amid improving exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $72.08 a barrel at 1322 GMT after settling 0.45% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.62 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1%.
Gold prices eased from two-week highs on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the metal, although expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve limited the downside after signs of a cooling U.S. labour market.
Spot gold fell 1% to $4,141.69 per ounce by 08:59 a.m ET (1258 GMT) after hitting its highest since June 22.
