Market Roundup
• US Nov Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM, 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.7% prev,1.0% revised.
• US Nov Retail Sales MM, 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous, 1.1% revised.
• US Nov Retail Sales YoY, 4.22%, 4.57% previous, 4.80% revised.
• US Nov retail sales control group +0.9% (cons +0.4%) vs oct +0.7% (previous +0.3%).
• US Nov Industrial Production MM, 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous, -0.2% revised.
• US Nov Capacity Utilization SA, 78.5%, 78.6% forecast, 78.4% previous, 78.1% revised.
• US Nov Manuf Output MM, 0.0%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous, -0.1% revised.
• US Nov Industrial Production YoY, 3.89%, 4.11% previous, 3.79% revised.
• US Dec Markit Comp Flash PMI, 53.6 54.7 previous.
• US Dec Markit Mfg PMI Flash, 53.9, 55.1 forecast, 55.3 previous.
• US Dec Markit Svcs PMI Flash, 53.4, 54.7 forecast, 54.7 previous.
• US Oct Business Inventories MM, 0.6%,0.6% forecast, 0.3% previous, 0.5% revised.
• US Oct Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Rev, 0.7%, 0.7% previous.
• "Who are you calling 'nebulous'?" May presses testy EU for Brexit help.
• ECB's Draghi warns EU leaders that growth is slowing.
• Euro zone takes step to deeper integration, key issues unresolved.
• Italy's Conte sees EU budget deal close, no changes to 2019 deficit.
• Oil drops 2 pct on Wall St losses, weak China data.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• Dec 15 01:30 China Nov China House Prices YY, 8.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• Dec 15 10:30 ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Pisa, Italy
• Dec 17 09:00 Belgian central bank presents forecasts for Belgian economy in Brussels
• Dec 17 09:00 French Central Bank Deputy Governor Sylvie Goulard speaks in Paris
• Dec 17 12:00 Riksbank General Council Meeting in Stockholm
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday as upbeat data on domestic retail sales and industrial output boosted greenback. However, dollar's gains were limited by bets the Federal Reserve might reduce the number of interest rate increases after a widely expected hike next week. An index that tracks the greenback versus six major peers, hit its highest level since May 2017 at 97.44, it was up 0.35 percent at 97.536. The euro was down 0.47 percent at $1.12965.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1350 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1440 (Higher Bollinger Bands).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1269 (Daily Lows), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1211 (23.6% retracement level).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Friday as concerns grew that Prime Minister Theresa May's failure to win key concessions from the European Union to salvage her Brexit deal could plunge the economy into chaos. Brexit negotiations and political uncertainty in Britain remain the key drivers for the pound, and many analysts are cautious about its prospects. The pound was last trading 0.55 percent lower at $1.2583, holding above a 20-month low of $1.2477 reached on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2660 (10 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2759 (Dec 10th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2531 (Lower Bollinger Bands), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2474 (Dec 14th low).A break of the latter then targets the 2018 low.
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar lost ground against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday as investors worried about signs of slower global growth and after the debt rating of Canada's most populous province was downgraded by Moody's. Stocks and the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as weak economic data from China and Europe exacerbated global growth fears and added to unease over the trade dispute between the United States and China.The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2 percent lower at 1.3389 to the greenback. It was on track to fall 0.4 percent for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3400 (Psychological Level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3431 (Higher Bollinger Bands).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3337 (10 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3294 (20 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against Japanese yen on Friday as demand for safe heaven yen increased after weak China data rekindled concerns about its slowing economy amid the backdrop of unresolved Sino-U.S. trade tensions. China's November retail sales grew at the weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose by the least in nearly three years as domestic demand softened further. This underlined rising risk to the economy. Markets are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, at which the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates. The focus, however, would be on the outlook for 2019.Strong resistance can be seen at 114.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 114.54 (Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 113.16 (20 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 112.99 (20 DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares closed lower for a second day on Friday as weak European and Chinese data renewed worries about global growth and sent a pan-European benchmark on course for its worst quarter since 2011.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.7 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.73 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.7 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.1 percent.
Wall Street's three major indexes slumped on Friday as weak data from China and Europe stoked fears of a global economic slowdown, while Johnson & Johnson was a major drag on the S&P 500 and Dow after Reuters reported the company had known knew for decades that asbestos lurked in its Baby Powder.
Dow Jones closed down by 2.02 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 1.19 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 2.27 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields slid on Friday, in line with declines in U.S. equities, weighed down by worries about global growth after poor economic numbers out of Europe and China.
In late trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.887 percent from 2.911 percent late on Thursday.
U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down at 3.139 percent from 3.148 percent on Wednesday.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dropped about 2 percent on Friday, weighed down by falling U.S. stock markets, while weak economic data from China pointed to lower fuel demand in the world's biggest oil importer.
Brent crude futures fell $1.17 to settle at $60.28 a barrel, a 1.90 percent loss. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost $1.38 to settle at $51.20 a barrel, a 2.62 percent loss.
Gold fell to its lowest in over a week on Friday and was on track to mark its biggest weekly decline in more than a month, as the dollar climbed on robust U.S. economic data ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,237.60 per ounce as of 1:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT). Earlier in the session, prices hit their lowest since Dec. 4 at $1,232.39. The yellow metal is down about 0.8 percent so far this week.U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5 percent, at $1,241.40.
