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Market Roundup
•Canadian Employment Change (Sep) -68.3K, 6.1K forecast, -41.7K previous
•Canadian Part Time Employment Change (Sep) -32.9K, -5.8K previous
•Canadian Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Sep) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Canadian Full Employment Change (Sep) -35.4K, -35.9K previous
•Canadian Participation Rate (Sep) 64.8%, 65.0% forecast, 65.0% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct) 47.3, 45.9 forecast, 46.3 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) 4.7%, 4.8% forecast, 4.6% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) 46.3, 47.5 forecast, 48.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro was headed for a fifth consecutive weekly decline on Friday as early gains faded after oil prices erased their earlier losses. However, selling pressure eased as France’s troubled bond market stabilised. Global bond markets had steadied earlier after oil prices fell following US President Donald Trump’s comments that Washington would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that productive talks with Tehran were underway.The euro hit a 17-month low of $1.1161 on Monday amid concerns over France’s record public debt and political challenges in implementing budget cuts, while the US economy and dollar remained relatively resilient. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.1198, leaving it around 0.5% lower for the week and on track for its longest losing streak against the dollar since early 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday traders assessed the likelihood of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday the US central bank will need to hike rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target.Traders are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in October and an 84% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.Global bond markets were calmer on Friday as oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said that the US would not attack Iran before US midterm elections on November 3 and added that there had been productive talks with Tehran over the war. Sterling gained 0.08% to $1.3235 but was on track for a seventh straight week of declines, its longest stretch since November 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD : The Canadian dollar weakened to an 18-month low against its US counterpart on Friday as domestic data showed a surprise drop in employment, reducing expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike this month.Canada's economy shed 68,300 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4% in August. Economists had forecast an increase of 9,200 jobs.Investors see a 25% chance the central bank raises its benchmark interest rate on October 28, down from 40% before the employment report.The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.4275 per US dollar, after touching its weakest intraday level since April 2025 at 1.4298. For the week, the currency was down 0.2%, putting it on track for its fifth straight weekly decline.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4293 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4347 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4186 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4091 (50%fib).
USD /JPY : The US dollar rose higher against the yen on Friday as weaker Japanese household spending weighed on yen. Household spending fell 3.1% year-on-year in August, marking a ninth consecutive monthly decline but less than the market-expected 3.6% drop.On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, spending rose 0.1%, below forecasts for a 0.5% increase. The persistent weakness in consumer spending will be a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it assesses the timing of potential interest-rate hikes in the coming months. The dollar strengthened 0.31% to 158.35 against the yen . The Japanese currency was on pace for its fourth straight weekly decline against the greenback, down about 0.3% on the week.Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.53(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.14(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks climbed on Friday as easing oil prices and government bond yields improved investor sentiment, easing concerns over inflationary pressures and borrowing costs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.95 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Friday as investors turned their attention to next week’s third-quarter earnings season and upcoming inflation data, which could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.83% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.59 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.64% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed for a second consecutive session on Friday, reaching a one-week high as bargain hunters returned after bullion hit a two-month low earlier in the week. Investors also assessed the prospects of further US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $4,194.36 per ounce by 03:29 p.m. EDT (1929 GMT), heading for a weekly gain of about 1.3%..US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.4% to settle at $4,216.3.
Oil prices settled higher on Friday as Hurricane Isaias moved toward the northern Gulf of Mexico, prompting energy companies to shut down more than 70% of crude production in US waters.
.Brent crude futures settled at $104.72, up 44 cents or 0.42%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $91.85 a barrel, up 36 cents, or 0.39%.
